MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
Sports|$21.1k Vol|
time203 days 0 hrs

MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year - AI Found +48.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.29 23:01
Top Undervalued
+48.9¢
Luis Barraza(No)
+48.9¢
Novak Mićović(No)
+48.8¢
Chris Brady(No)

MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year AI analysis: • +48.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to exhibit an absurd mispricing, with almost all 30 options priced around 50 ce...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Alabama Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Elections|$41.8k Vol|
time16 days 0 hrs

Alabama Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Chad Chig Martin(No)
+1.4¢
Ja’Mel Brown(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As a former U.S. Senator, Doug Jones holds an overwhelming advantage in name recognition, fundraisin...
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AI Analysis
Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$29.8k Vol|
time16 days 0 hrs

Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
Tommy Tuberville(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Tommy Tuberville maintains an absolute lead with only a couple of weeks left until the primary, maki...
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AI Analysis
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 3?
Weather|$11.7k Vol|
time12 hrs 2 mins

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
10°C(No)
+0.5¢
7°C or below(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecast data, the overnight low temperature at Incheon Internationa...
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Rule Risk
The title specifies 'Seoul', but the resolution criteria explicitly relies on data from the Incheon Intl Airport Station. Because Incheon is coastal, its lowest temperature can differ noticeably from inland Seoul, creating a trap for bettors relying on general Seoul weather forecasts. Additionally, the rounding to whole degrees Celsius introduces edge-case risks for boundary values.
Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 12°C surged significantly from 9c to 60c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged on a low temperature of around 12°C for May 3, which the market has priced in. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of 10°C surged from 9c to 37c before pulling back to 22c, because weather forecasts temporarily showed a possibility of slightly cooler temperatures before correcting back to warmer expectations.
AI Analysis
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Elections|$312.3k Vol|
time184 days 0 hrs

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+28¢
Mary Peltola(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
1.98%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Mary Peltola No (0.32) and Dan Sullivan No (0.67) Plan Description: Currently, the combined cost of Mary Peltola No (32c) and Dan Sullivan No (67c) is 99c. Since at mos...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market prices, Mary Peltola remains around 68c, while Dan Sullivan is around 33c...
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Divergence
The market's expectation (giving Peltola a 68% chance of winning) significantly diverges from mainstream political analysis. The mainstream consensus recognizes Alaska as a reliably red state (won by Trump), giving incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan a strong re-election advantage, especially with the state's RCV system facing potential repeal. In a conventional Senate race, it is extremely difficult for a Democrat to unseat an incumbent Republican in a red state. The prediction market's over-preference may be skewed by Peltola's historical success in the House elections using RCV, overlooking the differences between a statewide Senate race and a House race.
AI Analysis
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Politics|$321.3k Vol|
time242 days 0 hrs

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
December 31, 2026(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current date is May 2, 2026. Over the past week, the Yes price for 'June 30, 2026' has remained ...
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Rule Risk
This market description contains a severe factual premise error. In reality, Sébastien Lecornu is not the French Prime Minister (he is the Minister of the Armed Forces), nor did he go through the described 'appointed in Sept, resigned in Oct, reappointed in Oct' cycle. This is a purely fictional scenario presented as fact. This creates massive resolution risk: if the market resolves based on reality, the premise is false; if it resolves based on a fictional timeline, the source is undefined. Additionally, the options (2026) conflict with the rule text deadline (Dec 31, 2025).
Exotics
While 'Will the French PM resign' is a standard political question, this specific market is constructed on a fictional timeline that does not exist (Lecornu is not PM). This shifts it from a regular political market to a highly exotic one based on counterfactuals or misinformation.
Hedging
CAC 40
Even though the premise is fictional, if treated as a proxy for French political instability (assuming a scenario where Lecornu becomes PM and risks ousting), it correlates with the French CAC 40 index and the Euro. Frequent government turnover in France typically sparks concerns about fiscal policy and reform continuity, weighing on equities and the currency. Note: Due to the factual error in the premise, the actual hedging value is risky as the market might resolve to N/A.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Luis Barraza
YesNo
49.85¢
50.15¢
99¢
+48.9¢
Novak Mićović
YesNo
49.85¢
50.15¢
99¢
+48.9¢

Expand to view all 30 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Joe Willis surged from 33c to 50c, Oscar Ustari from 35.7c to 50c, and Chris Brady from 39.8c to 50c. The reason is the continued evaporation of market liquidity, where indiscriminate buying has pushed almost all options toward the 50c mark, exacerbating a systemic pricing collapse. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of Lucas Hoyos surged from 1c to 43.6c, and Rafael Cabral surged from 19.2c to 41.9c. The reason is extreme illiquidity, irrationally driving up YES prices across mutually exclusive options and worsening the mispricing. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of Daniel surged from 23.1c to 49.9c, Roman Bürki surged from 22.8c to 49.7c, and over a dozen keepers like Chris Brady saw similar >20c jumps. This is due to severe illiquidity and extreme mispricing, creating a massive shorting (buy NO) arb opportunity. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of Brad Stuver surged from 3c to 23c, and John Pulskamp surged from 3c to 23c. The reason is likely an order book anomaly caused by extremely low liquidity, attributed to a bot malfunction or a fat-finger trade.
Divergence
There is an absurd divergence between market implied probabilities and football common sense. The market assigns roughly a 50% chance to nearly 30 different goalkeepers (totaling >1500%), whereas in reality, only a handful of standout starting keepers on top-performing teams have any realistic shot at winning Goalkeeper of the Year.

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