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Value
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Minnesota Vikings
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Detroit Lions
YesNo
Green Bay Packers
YesNo
Chicago Bears
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The Detroit Lions rebounded quickly to 33c after a brief dip, validating market confidence in their 'strength of schedule' advantage; their fair value is pegged slightly higher at 35c. The Green Bay Packers maintain a fair value of 32c due to quarterback stability and a healthy salary cap. The Chicago Bears, facing a tougher 'first-place schedule,' are correctly priced at 19.5c, reflecting expected regression. The Minnesota Vikings remain significantly overvalued at 19c; given their severe salary cap deficit ($60M+) and rebuilding status, their fair value should be adjusted down to approximately 13c.
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Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Detroit Lions experienced significant volatility, plunging from 34.5c to 24c before quickly rebounding to 33c. The reason is likely the onset of NFL Free Agency (mid-March); the market initially overreacted to rival signings, leading to a panic sell-off of the Lions, but sophisticated traders quickly bought the dip, restoring the price based on the team's enduring fundamental advantage (schedule).
Divergence
The primary divergence concerns the Minnesota Vikings. Mainstream sports media and cap experts widely view the Vikings as being in 'cap hell' and a rebuilding phase, placing them at the bottom of the division. However, the prediction market prices them at 19c, nearly equal to the defending champion Bears. This suggests market participants are either ignoring cap constraints or hedging against undisclosed trade rumors, keeping the price significantly above fundamental analysis.
