[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low trading volume ($182), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and order book depth. Considering NH-01's history as a notorious "swing district" that is highly contested in midterms, assess whether the current price reflects a genuine early consensus or is merely inefficient pricing due to lack of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low trading volume ($182), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and order book depth. Considering NH-01's history as a notorious "swing district" that is highly contested in midterms, assess whether the current price reflects a genuine early consensus or is merely inefficient pricing due to lack of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Ratings & Odds Divergence: Search for the latest 2026 ratings for New Hampshire's 1st District from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., "Toss-up" vs. "Lean Democrat"). Compare these expert ratings with current Polymarket implied probabilities to identify if the market is underestimating the midterm "pendulum effect" which typically disadvantages the sitting President's party.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Ratings & Odds Divergence: Search for the latest 2026 ratings for New Hampshire's 1st District from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or Inside Elections (e.g., "Toss-up" vs. "Lean Democrat"). Compare these expert ratings with current Polymarket implied probabilities to identify if the market is underestimating the midterm "pendulum effect" which typically disadvantages the sitting President's party.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Long-term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Since this event does not resolve until November 4, 2026, calculate the "opportunity cost" of entering now. Assuming a risk-free stablecoin APY of 4% in DeFi protocols (like Aave), calculate the breakeven point for locking capital until the election concludes, and determine if the potential ROI offered by current odds is sufficient to cover this long-duration liquidity risk.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Long-term Opportunity Cost Calculation: Since this event does not resolve until November 4, 2026, calculate the "opportunity cost" of entering now. Assuming a risk-free stablecoin APY of 4% in DeFi protocols (like Aave), calculate the breakeven point for locking capital until the election concludes, and determine if the potential ROI offered by current odds is sufficient to cover this long-duration liquidity risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$127 Vol|

230 days 4 hrs

NH-01 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

60.5¢

39.5¢

78¢

22¢

+17.5¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

27¢

73¢

22¢

78¢

0¢

+5¢

AI Insights:

03.04 13:35 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Despite NH-01 historically being a swing district (Cook PVI D+1/2), the 2026 midterms under a Republican presidency strongly favor the opposition due to the historical 'Midterm Penalty'. The market (Dems ~80c) is aggressively pricing this macro tailwind and the reported GOP recruitment failures for the Open Seat. While Democrats are clear favorites, an 80% implied probability 8 months out is slightly crowded. A fair value of 78c acknowledges the strong structural advantage while pricing in standard time-decay risks and the volatility of New England independent voters.

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Movers

February 28, 2026 - March 1, 2026, Republican Party price plummeted from 38c to 22c (with Democratic Party surging accordingly). This sharp repricing was likely triggered by a top-tier GOP recruit declining to run or a new independent poll showing a double-digit lead for the Democrat in this Open Seat race, causing market confidence in a GOP flip to collapse again after a brief recovery. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Republican Party price plummeted from 35c to 22.5c. Despite the Open Seat created by Rep. Chris Pappas's Senate run, the GOP faced recruitment struggles and negative early polling.

NH-01 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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