All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Macklin Celebrini
YesNo
Nathan MacKinnon
YesNo
Nikita Kucherov
YesNo
Quinton Byfield
YesNo
Andrei Vasilevskiy
YesNo
Connor McDavid
YesNo
Zach Werenski
YesNo
Leon Draisaitl
YesNo
Andrei Svechnikov
YesNo
Jonathan Huberdeau
YesNo
Adin Hill
YesNo
Steven Stamkos
YesNo
Roope Hintz
YesNo
Matt Boldy
YesNo
Nazem Kadri
YesNo
Rasmus Dahlin
YesNo
Logan Stankoven
YesNo
Kirill Marchenko
YesNo
Sebastian Aho
YesNo
Thatcher Demko
YesNo
Mackenzie Blackwood
YesNo
Brock Boeser
YesNo
Kirill Kaprizov
YesNo
Kyle Connor
YesNo
Claude Giroux
YesNo
Ivan Demidov
YesNo
Brock Faber
YesNo
Stuart Skinner
YesNo
Jonathan Toews
YesNo
Jake Oettinger
YesNo
Sidney Crosby
YesNo
Erik Karlsson
YesNo
Mark Scheifele
YesNo
Adam Fox
YesNo
Sergei Bobrovsky
YesNo
Carter Verhaeghe
YesNo
Jason Robertson
YesNo
Alexander Nikishin
YesNo
Tomas Hertl
YesNo
Tim Stutzle
YesNo
Alexis Lafrenière
YesNo
Clayton Keller
YesNo
Linus Ullmark
YesNo
J.T. Miller
YesNo
Timo Meier
YesNo
Ryan O'Reilly
YesNo
Kevin Fiala
YesNo
David Pastrnak
YesNo
Miro Heiskanen
YesNo
Jordan Kyrou
YesNo
Lucas Raymond
YesNo
Nikolaj Ehlers
YesNo
Zach Hyman
YesNo
Dustin Wolf
YesNo
Brady Tkachuk
YesNo
Cale Makar
YesNo
Matty Beniers
YesNo
Chris Kreider
YesNo
Evgeni Malkin
YesNo
John-Jason Peterka
YesNo
Matvei Michkov
YesNo
Mitchell Marner
YesNo
Elias Pettersson
YesNo
Filip Gustavsson
YesNo
Alexander Ovechkin
YesNo
Roman Josi
YesNo
Igor Shesterkin
YesNo
Juraj Slafkovsky
YesNo
Owen Tippett
YesNo
Aleksander Barkov
YesNo
Brad Marchand
YesNo
Auston Matthews
YesNo
Will Smith
YesNo
Nico Hischier
YesNo
Logan Thompson
YesNo
Trevor Zegras
YesNo
Juuse Saros
YesNo
Sam Reinhart
YesNo
Jake Guentzel
YesNo
Elias Lindholm
YesNo
Connor Hellebuyck
YesNo
Anze Kopitar
YesNo
Filip Forsberg
YesNo
Matt Duchene
YesNo
Nick Suzuki
YesNo
Ilya Sorokin
YesNo
Alex DeBrincat
YesNo
Patrick Kane
YesNo
Jesper Bratt
YesNo
William Nylander
YesNo
Connor Bedard
YesNo
Darcy Kuemper
YesNo
Matthew Tkachuk
YesNo
Travis Konecny
YesNo
Seth Jarvis
YesNo
Brayden Point
YesNo
Quinn Hughes
YesNo
Robert Thomas
YesNo
Jack Eichel
YesNo
Patrik Laine
YesNo
Cutter Gauthier
YesNo
Dylan Larkin
YesNo
Cole Caufield
YesNo
Jordan Binnington
YesNo
Jack Hughes
YesNo
Mark Stone
YesNo
Artemi Panarin
YesNo
Mika Zibanejad
YesNo
Victor Hedman
YesNo
Lane Hutson
YesNo
Tage Thompson
YesNo
Jacob Markstrom
YesNo
Adrian Kempe
YesNo
Wyatt Johnston
YesNo
Mathew Barzal
YesNo
Evan Bouchard
YesNo
Martin Necas
YesNo
Dylan Strome
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 02:17 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the regular season enters the final stretch, Nathan MacKinnon (65c) solidifies his lead as the clear favorite. Leading the league in goals and captaining the top-seeded Avalanche, his premium price reflects a strong consensus for his second Hart Trophy. Nikita Kucherov (14.75c) remains the primary challenger; despite minor illness concerns, his recent scoring surge (8 points in 3 games) keeps the Art Ross race tight. Betting odds (~+250) imply a significantly higher probability than the prediction market, suggesting he is undervalued. Connor McDavid (9c) posts elite numbers but is hampered by the Oilers' standings lag. Macklin Celebrini (15c) trades on a massive 'rookie narrative' bubble; historical precedence heavily weighs against MVP awards for players on non-playoff teams, making his true fair value significantly lower.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Macklin Celebrini (Current price ~85c). This is a Low Risk Yield strategy (Soft Arb). Reasoning: The Hart Trophy is historically almost never awarded to players on non-playoff teams. While Celebrini is having a phenomenal rookie season, the probability of him beating established contenders like MacKinnon or Kucherov on a rebuilding Sharks team is extremely low. The current 15c 'Yes' price reflects retail hype rather than fundamental probability.
Plan Description:
While no risk-free arbitrage exists, shorting (Buying No) on Celebrini offers an excellent risk-reward ratio. The market assigns this rookie a ~15% implied probability, which drastically diverges from historical voting patterns. As long as voters maintain their traditional requirement for a playoff berth, this trade has very high certainty.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 15¢
|Annualized yield: 52.1%
Divergence
Significant divergence exists regarding Nikita Kucherov and Macklin Celebrini. Mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., BetMGM) list Kucherov around +250 to +280 (implying ~26-28% probability), whereas the prediction market prices him at only ~14.75c, suggesting the market is overreacting to his recent illness/injury news. Conversely, Celebrini is priced at 15c in the prediction market, which is notably higher than institutional odds (+750 or longer, <12%), indicating a retail premium on the rookie.
