All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Democratic Party
YesNo
Republican Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 08:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although market prices have fluctuated violently (Democratic 'Yes' surging to 66.5c), the current implied total probability is an irrational 117% (66.5 + 50.5), indicating significant inefficiency or liquidity mismatch. The fundamentals remain unchanged: the 2026 midterms pose a structural headwind for the GOP (assuming they hold the presidency), and NJ-07, as a wealthy suburban swing district, leans anti-MAGA. However, with over 230 days to go, a 66% win probability is overpriced. Fair value should remain anchored around a 60/40 structural advantage; it is advisable to ignore short-term noise and exploit arbitrage opportunities.
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Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 7, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party surged from ~52c to 66.5c (+14.5c), driven by severe liquidity imbalances or specific large buy orders, causing the price to decouple significantly from the Republican option (sum far exceeding 100%).
February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, the market remained relatively stable, with the Republican option rising slightly to 47c, reflecting normal market gaming.
