All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Brad Cohen
YesNo
Michael Anderson
YesNo
Tennille R. McCoy
YesNo
Verlina Reynolds-Jackson
YesNo
Adam Hamawy
YesNo
Matthew Adams
YesNo
Kyle Little
YesNo
Elijah Dixon
YesNo
Raymond Heck
YesNo
Susan Altman
YesNo
Adrian Mapp
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.18 16:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices creating a total implied probability of ~151%, indicating a massive premium. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, as the establishment favorite in Mercer County (the district's core), is the logical frontrunner with a fair value around 45c. Susan Altman holds a solid progressive base worth ~25c. Brad Cohen's surge to 35c is fundamentally detached from reality; as a Middlesex County mayor, overcoming the Mercer dominance is difficult, making him severely overvalued. Most egregiously, Tennille McCoy and Michael Anderson have seen inexplicable price spikes to ~17c in the last 48 hours; their fair values should be in the single digits.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026: Brad Cohen skyrocketed from 17.5c to 35c, Tennille R. McCoy from 2.5c to 17.9c, and Michael Anderson from 4.8c to 17.3c; simultaneously, Susan Altman plunged from 31c to 23.5c. Reason: Highly unusual capital flow detected. Buyers appear to be systematically bidding up all second-tier candidates, pushing the total market implied probability over 150%. This volatility suggests liquidity-driven speculation or manipulation rather than a fundamental shift.
Divergence
Significant divergence from reality. First, the aggregate implied probability exceeds 150%, which is mathematically impossible. Second, the market is pricing Brad Cohen (35c) as a near-equal to Verlina Reynolds-Jackson (36.5c), conflicting with the district's political geography (Mercer County dominance favors Verlina). Additionally, assigning >35% combined probability to fringe candidates (Anderson, McCoy) contradicts standard primary election dynamics.
