The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of '120-139' surged significantly from 2.35c to 13.25c (then retreated), and '140-159' surged from 5.1c to 16.4c (then retreated). This occurred because as tracking days passed, Musk's daily tweet run rate continued to fall, prompting traders to significantly downgrade their overall median estimates, though prices corrected later as tweet volume picked up slightly. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of '160-179' steadily climbed from 5.5c to 17c, and '140-159' surged from 2.3c to 10.85c. This is because first-day tracking data showed a lower posting frequency than initial aggressive expectations, prompting traders to revise their median projections downwards. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, multiple high-frequency options experienced steep declines. The price of '260-279' plummeted from 39.5c to 5.5c, '240-259' dropped from 30c to 10.5c, and '220-239' fell from 30.5c to 14.5c. This was due to significant previous overpricing or speculation; as the tracking period approached, traders re-evaluated Musk's realistic posting frequency, leading to mass sell-offs and a reversion to the mean.

The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.

Between May 3, 2026, and May 4, 2026, the '40-64' option price rebounded from 66.5c to 74.5c, while the '65-89' option fell back from 29.65c to 24.15c. This occurred because, as the tracking period nears its end, Musk's posting frequency has slowed, reducing the tail risk of exceeding 64 posts. On May 3, 2026, the '<40' option plummeted from 61.5c to 0.05c, while the '40-64' option surged from 35.5c to 75.5c, and the '65-89' option recovered to 26.75c. This occurred because, as the tracking period progressed, Musk's posting volume increased significantly, breaking earlier expectations of an ultra-low count. The market confirmed the final total would easily exceed 40 posts, locking largely onto the 40-64 range. Between May 2, 2026, and May 3, 2026, the '<40' option surged from 13c to 61.5c, while the '65-89' option plummeted further from 22.5c to 3.7c. This occurred because, during the first dozen hours of the tracking period, Musk's actual posting volume was significantly lower than expected, prompting the market to heavily downgrade its forecast for his total posts. Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price continued to rise from 43.5c to 65.5c, while the '65-89' option fell further from 38c to 16.5c. This occurred as the tracking period was about to start, and the market adjusted expectations based on his latest activity levels, solidifying the belief in a moderate posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects an initial shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.

Specific temperature predictions for daily weather are not highly followed by the general public but are common in prediction markets. It possesses some novelty, sitting between mainstream macro events and extremely bizarre questions.

There is a notable divergence between market expectations and the official forecast. The '78°F or higher' option is priced at 41 cents, implying the market expects the intense heat to continue. However, the explicit NWS forecast projects a cooldown to 73°F for May 5. Traders might be heavily extrapolating the 81°F heatwave from Sunday and Monday without factoring in the forecasted weather shift on Tuesday.