NYC Mayor # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
Politics|$13.4k Vol|
time21 hrs 35 mins

NYC Mayor # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.05 22:34
Top Undervalued
+1.1¢
20-39(No)
+0.4¢
100-119(No)
+0.4¢
60-79(No)

NYC Mayor # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026? AI analysis: • +1.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As of April 5, with less than 2 days remaining in the tracking period, the price of the '20-39' opti...
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Highest temperature in Milan on April 9?
Weather|$12.5k Vol|
time2 days 17 hrs

Highest temperature in Milan on April 9?

Top Undervalued
+20¢
24°C or higher(No)
+18.5¢
23°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Milan (specifically the Malpensa Air...
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Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a specific day is a typical weather derivative market. While it is niche and somewhat random for the general public, it is a relatively common format in prediction markets and commodity trading.
Divergence
The market is currently mispriced, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching 238.95%. Furthermore, higher temperature options (like 22°C and 23°C) are overpriced. This significantly diverges from the mainstream meteorological consensus (high of around 21°C), likely skewed by early speculative sentiment anticipating an extreme warming trend.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Denver on April 9?
Weather|$18.9k Vol|
time2 days 17 hrs

Highest temperature in Denver on April 9?

Top Undervalued
+7.9¢
62°F or higher(No)
+1.9¢
56-57°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Denver (Buckley Space Force Base)...
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Rule Risk
There is a notable risk: the title asks for 'Denver' temperature, but the rules strictly specify the Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF) in Aurora, CO as the resolution source. Temperatures at this base can differ from downtown Denver or the Denver International Airport, easily misleading traders. Additionally, the phrasing 'by the Forecast' contradicts the provided link for historical daily data (history/daily).
Exotics
Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city within a 2-degree Fahrenheit bucket is a niche but standard market type on prediction platforms. The general public simply checks weather forecasts rather than betting on them, making it somewhat novel.
Divergence
Meteorological forecasts widely predict the high temperature on April 9 will be between 64-69°F, yet the prediction market prices '62°F or higher' at only 30.5%. This highlights a significant undervaluation and a stark divergence from the meteorological consensus. Additionally, the sum of Yes prices far exceeds 100%, indicating significant market inefficiency.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Austin on April 9?
Weather|$11.1k Vol|
time2 days 17 hrs

Highest temperature in Austin on April 9?

Top Undervalued
+31.8¢
74°F or higher(No)
+11.9¢
72-73°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts from sources like the NWS, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, and local news...
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Exotics
While weather forecasting is an established subcategory in prediction markets, betting on the precise high-temperature range for a specific city (Austin) on a single day remains somewhat niche and novel to the general public.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and meteorological forecasts. All major weather models project the high temperature on April 9 to be between 77°F and 79°F, safely above the 74°F threshold. However, the market only assigns an implied probability of less than 50% to the '74°F or higher' option, with the remaining probability spread across lower temperature ranges. This divergence is likely caused by overly conservative market positioning regarding long-range forecasts with potential precipitation.
AI Analysis
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
netflix|$11.0k Vol|
time5 hrs 35 mins

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1(No)
+1.3¢
Love on the Spectrum: Season 4(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current prediction market trends and last week's viewership data, the newly premiered 'XO, ...
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Movers
April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1' surged from 48c to 78.5c, as the release of 'XO, Kitty Season 3' is expected to take the #1 spot, solidifying this show's position at #2. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'XO, Kitty Season 3' plummeted from 40.5c to 10c, because it is widely expected to rank #1, thus reducing its probability of being #2. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'The Bad Guys: The Series' crashed from 40.5c to 5.5c, due to strong performances from competitors eliminating its chances for the top two spots. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Love on the Spectrum: Season 4' fell from 40.5c to 12.5c, as the market consolidated around the likely top two shows. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'The Predator of Seville: Limited Series' dropped from 40.5c to 5.5c, as its viewership failed to remain competitive. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Raw: 2026 - March 23, 2026' crashed from 40.5c to 2.3c, as it fell down the viewership charts amidst newer releases.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
20-39
YesNo
98.1¢
1.9¢
97¢
+1.1¢
100-119
YesNo
0.4¢
99.6¢
100¢
+0.4¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the exact number of tweets by the NYC Mayor in a specific week is a highly niche and novelty market. Ordinary people do not typically think about this metric.
Movers
April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the '20-39' option surged from 61.5c to 96c as the post count securely entered this range and insufficient time remained to see a massive increase. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the '40-59' option plummeted from 26.5c to 3c as hopes of reaching the 40-post threshold faded with the passing time. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the '40-59' option rebounded from 6c to 26.5c as the posting frequency picked up, reviving the probability of surpassing 40 posts. April 2, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the '20-39' option retreated from 82.5c to 61.5c due to profit-taking and hedging into the 40-59 bracket. April 2, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the '<20' option crashed from 22c to 4.5c, as the accumulated post count likely approached or surpassed the threshold, rendering it nearly impossible. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '20-39' option surged from 49.5c to 69.5c, as the tracking period began and capital consolidated into the most probable bracket. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '100-119' option spiked absurdly from 1.9c to 49.4c before settling at 23.7c, driven by extremely low liquidity where tiny speculative buys cause massive swings. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the '40-59' option jumped from 9c to 49.5c and fell back to 26c, again reflecting extreme volatility due to illiquidity. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the '120-139' option experienced violent fluctuations between 6c and 22.4c due to low trading volume. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the '40-59' option plummeted from 45c to 9c, likely due to early market makers withdrawing liquidity or rebalancing toward the 20-39 bracket.

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