Arbitrage Plan: Strongly recommend buying 'No 15°C or higher' (Cost 0.53). This is a high-probability play as the airport forecast tops out at 55°F (13°C), leaving a ~4°F margin of safety below the 15°C threshold. A more aggressive value play is buying a combination of 'Yes 12°C' (2c) and 'Yes 13°C' (25.5c), covering the two most likely outcomes. Plan Description: The market prices a 47% probability of 15°C at Incheon, which completely contradicts meteorological ...

The core conflict remains the location mismatch. As March 24 has started in Seoul, short-term foreca...

On March 23, 2026, the price of '12°C' collapsed from 17.5c to 2c, completely abandoned by the market as traders extrapolated the warmth of March 23 into the next day. Meanwhile, '15°C or higher' spiked to 49.5c and held at 47c, showing the market is ignoring forecasts for increased cloud cover and cooling temperatures on March 24.

Major divergence. Polymarket prices imply a near 50% chance of 15°C+, whereas mainstream weather sources (AccuWeather, Google/TWC) consistently forecast 12°C-13°C (54-55°F) for Incheon Airport. The divergence stems from traders confusing 'Seoul City' forecasts (15°C) with 'Incheon Airport' data (13°C).

As the forecast horizon shortens (T-3), meteorological models (like GFS/ECMWF) typically converge, s...

2026-03-22 14:45 - 2026-03-22 16:55, 9°C price plunged from 34c to 23.5c, likely due to market participants reacting to afternoon weather model updates, causing a rapid capital flight from 9°C. 2026-03-21 17:05 - 2026-03-22 16:55, 10°C price surged from 19.5c to 32.5c, as the forecast window entered the 72-hour precision range, driving consensus rapidly towards 10°C as the probable winner. 2026-03-21 13:50 - 2026-03-21 14:55, 11°C price rose from 16.5c to 20.5c (after previously being 31c), indicating high volatility and struggle for this option as the secondary favorite.

Synthesizing data from NWS (National Weather Service) and major commercial sources (Google/IBM Weath...

On March 22, 2026, the 80-81°F option experienced significant volatility, spiking to 35.5c in the afternoon before crashing back to 20.5c at night. This suggests a brief intraday market divergence regarding sea breeze cooling effects or lingering cool air, which eventually subsided as NWS confirmed the warming trend. On the same day, 84-85°F rebounded from 18c to 26.5c, further confirming capital rotation toward hotter ranges. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of the 76-77°F option crashed from 13c to 1.5c, as the market priced out the possibility of below-average seasonal temperatures.

Based on major meteorological sources, both Google Weather and AccuWeather (which often shares data ...

This is a location-specific weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the exact maximum temperature for a specific date in Lucknow, India, is a relatively niche and granular market compared to mainstream elections or sports events.

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '34°C or below' spiked from 26c to 49.5c before correcting back to 30.5c, likely due to an initial overreaction to IMD's 'below normal' report, followed by a correction as short-term forecasts (like Google's 35°C) confirmed a warming trend. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '37°C' crashed from 16.5c to 5.5c, as major weather models (Google/AccuWeather) converged on a lower forecast of 35°C, rendering higher outlier forecasts (like TimeAndDate's 37°C) improbable.

There is divergence between weather models. Mainstream media (Google/AccuWeather) point clearly to 35°C, while TimeAndDate predicts 37°C. However, the prediction market has not consolidated around 35°C, instead spreading liquidity evenly across 34-36°C. This indicates market uncertainty regarding the rate of warming and suggests the 35°C option is undervalued relative to the media consensus.

According to Billboard rules, the chart dated 'Week of March 28' reflects the tracking week of Frida...