Current market prices indicate that 16°C and 15°C have the highest yes prices at 28.5c and 23.5c res...

This is a typical niche weather derivative market. While temperature is objective data, predicting the specific temperature in Ankara, Turkey, for a specific date is a novelty topic for most global prediction market participants.

From March 24, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the price of '18°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 6.5c, as approaching weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme high temperatures. From March 24, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the price of '16°C' surged from 13.5c to 29c, because the latest weather models narrowed the consensus for the expected high temperature to around 16°C. From March 24, 2026 to March 26, 2026, the price of '12°C' plummeted from 21.5c to 3.95c, as the likelihood of cold air impact was ruled out by forecasts.

With about 2 days left until expiration, current weather forecasts indicate the high temperature at ...

This is a typical weather prediction market. For the general public, the exact temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a primary concern unless there is extreme weather. It falls into the 'niche but not absurd' category, appealing mainly to weather enthusiasts or traders seeking random variance.

From 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-26, the price of '26°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 3.5c, as updated forecasts confirmed a cooling trend and ruled out extreme heat as the date approached. From 2026-03-24 to 2026-03-25, the price of 17°C fell from 18.5c to 2.65c, as forecasts showed temperatures would not be that low.

Based on the latest market data, the sum of implied probabilities has corrected from a previous high...

Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the price of the 11°C option rose from 22.5c to a peak of 35.5c before settling at 33c, as forecast models solidified the 11°C high expectation closer to the settlement date. Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-25, the 10°C option climbed from 20.5c to 33.5c before pulling back to 28.5c, reflecting temporary market hedging against a cooler-than-expected peak. Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the 9°C option plummeted from 22.5c to 10c, and the 12°C option dropped from 25.5c to 17c, as confidence in temperatures diverging from the 11°C consensus waned rapidly with decreasing time to maturity.

Hoppers grossed approximately $18M in its third weekend. Given its consistent week-over-week drops o...

March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, prices across all brackets experienced wild fluctuations. For instance, the '10-11m' Yes price surged from 14c to 52c on March 25, before settling at 34c; '11-12m' Yes price also swung heavily between 15.5c and 44.5c. The reason is extreme illiquidity in this market, where minor trades cause massive price deviations. Historically, it was noted that the market lacked liquidity, and these recent drastic swings further confirm that thin order books are driving significant price instability.

The market currently heavily undervalues the '11-12m' bracket (priced at 20c) while pricing both '10-11m' and '12-13m' at around 30c. This diverges from mainstream box office decay logic, where a consistent ~37% drop places the gross precisely at $11.3M. The divergence is likely driven by panic over competition from 'Project Hail Mary' causing over-betting on alternative brackets, or simply extreme pricing distortion due to low liquidity.

Texas (11) is the only remaining double-digit seed, facing Purdue (2) in the Sweet 16. Sportsbooks c...