May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026: The price of 24°C dropped from 34c to 19.5c, and 22°C dropped from 30.5c to 19c, while 23°C rose to 44c. This occurred because, as noon on May 4 approached, real-time temperature data ruled out extreme highs or lows, strengthening the market consensus for 23°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of 22°C plummeted from 31c to 4.5c early on May 3, then rebounded to 30.5c later that evening. This extreme volatility was likely caused by divergence in early forecast models regarding cloud cover or cold air impact, followed by a reassessment as forecasts stabilized. May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026: The price of 25°C saw a continuous unilateral decline from a peak of 24.5c down to 2.7c, as updated forecasts indicated less warming than initially expected, gradually eliminating the possibility of reaching 25°C.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche prediction market. While weather forecasting is part of daily life, trading on specific daily temperature outcomes is not a mainstream focus.

Between May 2 and May 4, 2026, the price of the '64-65°F' option surged from 23c to 48c, and '66-67°F' jumped from 21c to 40.5c, while '62-63°F' plummeted from 27.5c to 6.5c. This occurred because as the resolution date approached, meteorological forecasts converged, pinning the expected high temperature specifically to the 64-66°F range.

May 2, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the <11.5m option briefly crashed from 25c to 11c before bouncing back to 26c, while the 13.5-14.5m and >14.5m options dropped sharply from 28c and 25.5c to 13c and 12c, respectively. This was driven by the release of the latest tracking data pointing towards an $11.2M weekend, causing market expectations to shift. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 12.5-13.5m option spiked from 24.5c to 45.5c before quickly retreating, likely due to large short-term positions or early mispricing in the market.

The market currently prices the 12.5-13.5m bracket as the favorite (34c), whereas mainstream media and box office tracking platforms (e.g., Koimoi) project the film to gross around $11.2 million for the weekend. This indicates a significant divergence, as the prediction market has not yet fully absorbed the latest bearish tracking estimates.

Between May 3 and May 4, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 23c to 36c, and 32°C climbed from 12.5c to 25c. Meanwhile, 34°C plummeted from a peak of 44.5c down to 20c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, major weather forecasting models have converged their high-temperature predictions to the 90°F - 91°F (32-33°C) range, largely ruling out the likelihood of more extreme heat (34°C and above).

May 4, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 83.5c to 0.35c before surging to 98.3c, while the 25°C option spiked from 15.8c to 99c and then dropped to 2.0c. This volatility was caused by intraday temperature fluctuations or real-time weather station data revisions on resolution day, triggering a fierce tug-of-war between the 24°C and 25°C thresholds. As the final daily high became mostly confirmed, consensus rapidly settled on 24°C. May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, lower temperature expectations previously dominated the market. As the resolution date approached, forecasts more clearly indicated a rainy and cooler day, driving market consensus rapidly toward the 23°C-24°C range. May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the 25°C option saw a volatile decline from 19.0c to 2.0c, as the probability of higher temperatures was largely ruled out by updated meteorological data.