All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Democratic Party
YesNo
Republican Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 13:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although PA-07 is a key swing district ('Toss Up'), the market is currently overly optimistic about the Democratic Party (~72c). While the 2026 midterm environment (Republican presidency historically favoring the opposition) and the strong re-election campaign of Governor Josh Shapiro will boost Democratic prospects, the Republican incumbent typically holds advantages in fundraising and name recognition. The previous market price (R 28c) severely undervalued Republican competitiveness, and the recent rebound (to 39.5c) is closer to a rational range. Given the structural advantages favoring Democrats but acknowledging the tight race, the Fair Value is set at D 55 / R 45.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 10, 2026, the price of the Republican Party surged from 28c to 39.5c. The reason is that the previous price (28c) was a gross undervaluation for an incumbent running in a swing district; a return of liquidity caused a sharp correction towards fundamentals (the 40c-50c range).
February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, the price of the Republican Party dropped from 41c to 32c, while the Democratic Party saw volatility. This was due to a temporary lack of market liquidity widening the spread, rather than a drastic shift in fundamentals.
Divergence
Market prices imply a 72% win probability for the Democratic Party (Yes Price), which diverges significantly from authoritative bodies like the Cook Political Report, which rate the district as a 'Toss Up'. Mainstream political analysis suggests the Republican incumbent has about a 50% chance, indicating the prediction market is currently severely overestimating the Democratic advantage.
