Palantir # of customers above __ in Q1?
Finance|$3,090 Vol|
time1 days 4 hrs

Palantir # of customers above __ in Q1? - AI Found +18¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 3 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+18¢
1000(No)
+4¢
1020(No)
+4¢
1040(No)

Palantir # of customers above __ in Q1? AI analysis: • +18¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current market pricing as the Q1 2026 earnings date approaches, expectations for Palantir's...
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Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?
Finance|$19.3k Vol|
time12 days 4 hrs

Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?

Top Undervalued
+6¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market price remains stable around 41 cents, reflecting steady expectations regarding the potent...
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Exotics
This is a relatively niche financial market question. It focuses on specific regulatory filings (13F) and a specific asset (IBIT), rather than a mainstream event. While it involves Bitcoin, the specific conditions ($250M holding with >25% allocation dropping to <$10M) make it a highly specific scenario, bordering on a novelty financial prop bet.
Hedging
Bitcoin
IBIT
If this event resolves to 'Yes', it implies a massive liquidation by a whale holding significant amounts of IBIT (BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF). Such a sell-off (at least $240M in selling pressure) would likely cause notable volatility in Bitcoin spot prices and the ETF itself. This market serves as a potential hedge against whale capitulation risk.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket data for 'Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?', analyze the risks of its low liquidity ($6413 volume), and update the fair value assessment by verifying if any funds actually met the 'entry threshold' (>$250M IBIT & >25% allocation) in the already-released Q4 2025 13F filings.
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$50.7k Vol|
time107 days 4 hrs

Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Eric Barlow(Yes)
+3.3¢
Tara Nethercott(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Megan Degenfelder has further consolidated her lead with solid statewide support and name recognitio...
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Movers
Apr 27, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, the prices of multiple fringe candidates like Ogen Driskill and Tara Nethercott saw abnormal spikes on Apr 28 (e.g., Driskill surged from 1.1c to 39.8c before correcting to 6.1c). This was caused by low market liquidity resulting in 'fat-finger' trades or indiscriminate short-term market sweeps, with no actual changes in political fundamentals. Mar 01, 2026 - Mar 03, 2026, Brent Bien's price drifted down from 10.25c to 2.7c, as support further consolidated around Eric Barlow and Megan Degenfelder, with the market discounting Bien's viability as a previous runner-up. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, Megan Degenfelder's price surged from 53.5c to 71.6c, while Chuck Gray's price crashed from 36.7c to 13.5c, driven by reports that Gray declined to run for Governor, causing a rapid consolidation of the conservative vote around Degenfelder.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket page for the Wyoming GOP Primary to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for top contenders like Harriet Hageman and Chuck Gray. Update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk by factoring in incumbent Mark Gordon's eligibility (term limits) and the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement.
Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance|$14.7k Vol|
time3 days 4 hrs

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
3.6B(Yes)
+0.5¢
3.2B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current market trends and previous analysis, Uber's Q1 trip count faces a seasonal dip but ...
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Hedging
UBER
Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.
Movers
Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-05-02, the price of the 3.6B option climbed from 58c to 71.5c, indicating that as the earnings date approaches, market participants have regained further confidence in hitting 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-04-30, the price of the 3.6B option recovered from 54c to 61c, likely because market participants reassessed the seasonal dip or received new unofficial data clues, restoring some probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the YES price for the 3.6B option plunged from 87.5c to 51.5c. This was likely due to market participants revising their Q1 seasonal dip estimates downwards as the earnings release approaches, significantly reducing the perceived probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the 4.4B and 4.6B options experienced anomalous price spikes (to 5.45c and 6.0c respectively), likely caused by poorly executed trades by inexperienced market participants in a low-liquidity environment.
AI Analysis
Verify how Uber officially reports the 'total number of trips' metric in their recent earnings materials, and check if there are any rule risks regarding metric definition changes or omission in the Q1 2026 report.
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Politics|$11.7k Vol|
time242 days 4 hrs

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Top Undervalued
+3.2¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Adam Back, the inventor of Hashcash, has long been considered a potential candidate for Satoshi Naka...
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Rule Risk
The rules require 'definitive evidence' and a 'consensus of credible reporting,' which are inherently subjective. Disputed evidence (e.g., questionable cryptographic signatures or unverifiable statements) could lead to resolution controversies.
Exotics
Identifying Satoshi is a long-standing mystery in crypto, and Adam Back is a frequently discussed candidate. It is a common topic in the crypto space but somewhat exotic for traditional mainstream prediction markets.
Hedging
Bitcoin
If Adam Back (a living person) is confirmed as Satoshi, it could trigger market panic over the potential dumping of the massive early untouched Bitcoin stash (approx. 1.1 million BTC) or raise concerns about network centralization, causing a significant downward shock to Bitcoin's price.
AI Analysis
What exact 'definitive evidence' or consensus reporting is required for this market to resolve 'Yes' on Adam Back being Satoshi Nakamoto?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 3?
Weather|$11.1k Vol|
time16 hrs 53 mins

Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
62-63°F(No)
+13.5¢
64-65°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at San Francisco International Airpor...
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Exotics
Weather forecasting is a niche but relatively established category in prediction markets. While predicting the daily high for a specific city isn't a major global issue, it is a common proposition for quantitative modelers and weather enthusiasts.
AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground finalize the highest temperature for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on May 3, and what happens if the data is revised later?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
1000
YesNo
68¢
32¢
50¢
50¢
0¢
+18¢
1020
YesNo
50¢
50¢
46¢
54¢
0¢
+4¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
PLTR
Customer count growth is a core KPI for measuring Palantir's (PLTR) business expansion and commercialization. A beat or miss on this metric during earnings season will directly trigger significant stock movements (often >5%), making PLTR stock an excellent direct hedge for this market.
Movers
From 2026-05-01 to 2026-05-02, the 'yes' price of the 1000 option sharply dropped from 78.5c to 50c, indicating a rapid cooling of confidence and a shift toward conservative estimates just days prior to earnings. From 2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the 'yes' price of the 1000 option rebounded sharply from 50c to 82.5c, indicating that market confidence in surpassing 1000 customers quickly warmed up again as the earnings date approached. From 2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the 'yes' price of the 1020 option climbed back from 33c to 49c, while the 1040 option fell from 47.5c to 36c, showing continuous adjustment of high-growth expectations ahead of the earnings release. From 2026-04-28 to 2026-04-29, the 'yes' price of the 1040 option plummeted from 44.5c to 10c, indicating that the market rapidly recalibrated its overly optimistic high-growth expectations. From 2026-04-28 to 2026-04-29, the 'yes' price of the 1000 option surged from 49.5c to 86c, as market confidence significantly increased that the customer count would exceed 1000.

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