All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Bad Bunny
YesNo
Timothée Chalamet
YesNo
Connor Storrie
YesNo
Michael B. Jordan
YesNo
Hudson Williams
YesNo
Travis Kelce
YesNo
Ryan Gosling
YesNo
Clavicular
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 01:03 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market suffers from fundamental mispricing. Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams are fictional characters from the novel 'Heated Rivalry', and Clavicular is a streamer; their probability of winning People's title is effectively 0. While real candidates like Ryan Gosling or Timothée Chalamet are plausible, the unlisted 'Other' field (e.g., Glen Powell, Jacob Elordi) historically holds >80% equity. Thus, fair values for listed options are low, with Michael B. Jordan penalized for being a past winner.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
While a popular cultural topic, as a prediction market subject, it falls under entertainment/novelty rather than traditional finance or politics. It is somewhat exotic due to its reliance on subjective aesthetics and celebrity marketing dynamics.
Divergence
Extreme divergence. The market favorite (Connor Storrie) is a fictional character, which completely contradicts real-world media standards. This indicates the market is currently driven by meme behavior from a specific fanbase rather than rational forecasting.
