Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings?
Earnings|$5,726 Vol|
time9 days 1 hrs

Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? - AI Found +21¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.20 03:28
Top Undervalued
+21¢
(Yes)

Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? AI analysis: • +21¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to search results, Dave & Buster's (PLAY) has missed earnings estimates for four consecuti...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
Tech|$1.8m Vol|
time648 days 4 hrs

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

Top Undervalued
+4¢
1T+(Yes)
+0.6¢
600B–700B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of March 22, 2026, the valuation logic for SpaceX's IPO remains highly stable. Although the '1T+'...
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Hedging
DXYZ
TSLA
A SpaceX IPO is a major capital market event. Given Elon Musk's dual leadership, liquidity flows or attention shifts could impact TSLA stock. DXYZ (Destiny Tech100) holds significant private SpaceX shares, making its price extremely sensitive to SpaceX's valuation. Google (Alphabet), as an early investor, would see minor asset revaluation. Overall, this serves as a significant hedge for the space tech sector and Musk-related equities.
AI Analysis
F1 Constructors' Champion
Sports|$5.7m Vol|
time258 days 4 hrs

F1 Constructors' Champion

Top Undervalued
+11¢
Mercedes(Yes)
+6¢
Ferrari(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The early 2026 season hierarchy is set. Mercedes has secured 1-2 finishes in both Australia and Chin...
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Hedging
RACE
Ferrari (RACE) is the only pure-play public stock where F1 performance is a direct material driver. A Championship win under the new 2026 regulations would significantly boost brand value and stock price (meriting a score of 3). Liberty Media (FWONA) owns F1, but a specific team winning is neutral for them. For Mercedes (MBG.DE), F1 success is a minor factor relative to their massive automotive operations.
AI Analysis
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit __ by March 31?
Trump|$1.3m Vol|
time8 days 4 hrs

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit __ by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
50%(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
0¢
Arbitrage
20.3%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on the '50%' Option Plan Description: A logical arbitrage (low-risk yield) exists. Currently, the 'No' price for both the '30%' and '50%' ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With only about 9 days left until the March 31 settlement, market pricing has essentially hit zero (...
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Exotics
'Trump buying Greenland' is already a highly unconventional geopolitical idea (stemming from his first term), and this market bets on whether the *odds* of that possibility will spike. It is a derivative bet on a 'meme-like' political event, making it highly exotic.
AI Analysis
Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics|$716.1k Vol|
time1 days 4 hrs

Denmark Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
Green Left(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
275.5%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Social Democrats (Yes) @ 98.9c Plan Description: While no direct arbitrage exists, a 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity is present. The Social Democrats le...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 36 hours remaining until the March 24 election, the latest polling data (from Voxmete...
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AI Analysis
"Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office
Culture|$1.0m Vol|
time16 hrs 56 mins

"Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+15¢
80-85m(No)
+15¢
75-80m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of Sunday afternoon, the cumulative Friday+Saturday gross stands at ~$60.2M. To breach the $80M t...
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Hedging
IMAX
AMC
CNK
Box office performance directly impacts the short-term stock prices of theater chains (AMC, CNK) and premium format providers (IMAX), especially for sci-fi blockbusters like 'Project Hail Mary'. A significant beat (>$70M) would likely trigger an intraday rally in these stocks. While Amazon MGM is the distributor, Amazon's massive market cap means a single film's P&L has negligible impact on AMZN stock (Score 1). Thus, the best hedging assets are mid-cap theater stocks.
Movers
On March 22, 2026, '80-85m' surged from ~50c in the early morning to 87c, while '75-80m' collapsed from a high of 67c to 13c. This was driven by the release of Saturday actuals ($27.1M), bringing the cume to $60.2M. The market realized that only a standard Sunday hold is needed to cross the $80M mark, causing a liquidity rotation from '75-80m' into '80-85m'. On March 21, 2026, '80-85m' rallied from ~40c to ~77c, driven by a strong $33.1M Friday opening which ruled out lower brackets. From March 19-20, 2026, '>90m' collapsed from 30c+ to single digits as Thursday previews failed to support a $90M breakout.
Divergence
Risk premium divergence exists. Mainstream box office models imply a landing spot around $80.5M, only $0.5M above the bracket cutoff ($80M). However, the prediction market is pricing '80-85m' at 87%, effectively betting that there is almost zero risk of a downward correction or steeper Sunday drop. The market is exhibiting overconfidence given the minimal margin for error.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
YesNo
21¢
79¢
42¢
58¢
+21¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
PLAY
Dave & Buster's (PLAY) stock price is highly sensitive to earnings results. An EPS result below or significantly above $0.46 would typically trigger a volatility of 5% or more on the release day, making it a tradable event. The impact is primarily localized to the stock itself, with negligible effect on broader indices.
Movers
March 18, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from approximately 39c to 63.5c. The reason is likely speculative buying leading up to the earnings date, betting on a cyclical recovery during the holiday season (Q4), despite a lack of significant improvement in fundamentals.
Divergence
The market price (63.5%) implies a very high probability of an earnings beat, which diverges significantly from mainstream data. Polymarket's own earlier prediction model suggested only a 39% chance, and the company has missed estimates for 4 consecutive quarters. Analyst ratings are mostly 'Hold', showing little conviction for a beat. The market pricing likely overreacts to hopes of a holiday rebound while ignoring the reality of recent revenue declines.

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