All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$100M
YesNo
$300M
YesNo
$200M
YesNo
$400M
YesNo
$500M
YesNo
$600M
YesNo
$1B
YesNo
$2B
YesNo
$50M
YesNo
$1.5B
YesNo
$800M
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 16:05 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest price action, market expectations for Predict.fun continue to cool. Over the past few days (specifically March 16-17), almost all options above $200M have seen further declines. For instance, the Yes price for $300M dropped from 53.5c on March 13 to the current 43.5c, and while there is a slight rebound from yesterday's lows, the overall trend remains negative. $400M fell significantly from 38.5c to 31c. This persistent decline suggests a lack of confidence in high valuations, likely due to the absence of a concrete launch date or concerns about the broader market environment. The current pricing structure indicates that $200M is the watershed for bullish/bearish sentiment (~54.5c), while $300M and above are increasingly viewed as unlikely. Therefore, fair values have been adjusted downward across the board to reflect this ongoing pessimistic sentiment and time decay.
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Exotics
This is a niche market concerning the token launch of a specific project (Predict.fun). While predicting the FDV of new tokens is a common topic in crypto, Predict.fun itself may not be a household name. Predicting specific valuation tiers is a vertical speculative question, slightly exotic to the general public but relatively standard for crypto-native users.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the $300M option fell from 51.5c to 43.5c (touching a low of 42c), as the lack of concrete launch news caused investors to lower expectations for mid-to-high valuations, with capital flowing toward more conservative valuation ranges.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the $300M option price plummeted from 53.5c to 42c (a cumulative drop of 11.5c), as market confidence continued to drain in the absence of positive catalysts. This caused a general downgrade in valuation expectations, shifting the pivot point from the previous $300M-$400M range down to around $200M.
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the $200M option price fell from 61.5c to 57.5c, as profit-taking occurred due to the passage of time without new news, shifting sentiment from optimistic to cautious.
