There is notable divergence. The NWS explicitly forecasts a high of 74°F (with showers) for the day, yet the market prices the 78-79°F range (21c) almost as highly as the 74-75°F range (21.5c). The market appears to not have fully priced in the latest rain and cooler temperature forecast, overestimating the probability of a warmer day.

Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is somewhat niche and generally not pondered by the public, though weather prediction markets are a relatively standard fixture among non-traditional prediction platforms.

There is a severe divergence between market prices and mainstream weather forecasts. Major meteorological sources (e.g., Google Weather, NDTV) predict that due to rain, the maximum temperature in Lucknow on May 7 will only be between 32°C and 33°C, far below normal. However, the market prices the '35°C or below' option at only 36 cents, indicating that the market has not fully absorbed the recent cooling and rainfall forecasts. Some traders are likely relying on historical climatological averages for the region (around 40°C). Furthermore, the total sum of 'Yes' prices across the market is only around 50 cents, highlighting an extremely inefficient market state.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the Yes prices for all tiers (e.g., 65+, 75+, 85+) experienced massive surges. For instance, 85+ skyrocketed from 48.5c to over 90c. The reason is the release of the film's early Rotten Tomatoes score after the embargo lifted, landing at a stellar 94%-97%, vastly boosting market confidence.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche topic. While the general public doesn't focus on such specific values daily, it is a common weather betting event in prediction markets.

The market prices for YES on '28°C or higher' and '18°C or below' are 25c and 22c respectively, which are significantly higher than the true probabilities implied by meteorology and historical data. This may be due to low liquidity or speculators betting on extreme weather events.