Solana above ___ on April 22?
Crypto|$1,740 Vol|
time5 days 4 hrs

Solana above ___ on April 22? - AI Found +14.1¢ Mispricing

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Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+14.1¢
90(Yes)

Solana above ___ on April 22? AI analysis: • +14.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Minnesota Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Politics|$18.6k Vol|
time115 days 12 hrs

Minnesota Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+20¢
Kobey Layne(No)
+6.5¢
Amy Klobuchar(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With Tim Walz having withdrawn and Steve Simon running for Secretary of State, Amy Klobuchar remains...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Divergence
There is a notable divergence: Mainstream consensus dictates that Amy Klobuchar faces no credible opposition in the primary, meaning her actual probability of winning is near 100%. However, the prediction market assigns an inexplicably high 20c 'Yes' price to marginal candidate Kobey Layne, artificially suppressing Klobuchar's price to 92.5c. This pricing deviates from political reality, likely driven by poor liquidity or irrational speculation.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Does the current 'Yes' price for Tim Walz on Polymarket fully reflect his intention to seek a third term? Comparing the bid depth for Amy Klobuchar and Steve Simon, is the market pricing in a 'Walz retirement' black swan risk? Is there a significant undervaluation relative to his win probability?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 17?
Weather|$25.8k Vol|
time46 mins

Highest temperature in Houston on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
82-83°F(No)
+4¢
84-85°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As April 17 approaches, the latest meteorological models suggest the high temperature at Houston's H...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of the 80-81°F option dropped from 24c to 11.5c, while the 84-85°F option surged temporarily from 26c to 47.5c. This was caused by fluctuations in weather models regarding pre-frontal warming, causing market sentiment to rapidly shift between adjacent temperature brackets. No other extreme temperature options experienced movements greater than 10c over the last 3 days.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the highest temperature for Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) be determined on Wunderground on April 17, and what are the win/loss conditions for the different temperature ranges if data is delayed?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 17?
Weather|$38.3k Vol|
time46 mins

Highest temperature in Dallas on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
82-83°F(No)
+9.5¢
84-85°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature at Dallas Love Field Station on A...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is a short-term regional weather prediction market. While professional weather derivatives exist in institutional trading, betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day in a retail prediction market remains relatively niche and carries a certain novelty aspect.
Movers
On April 16, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option plummeted from 40.5c to 18.5c before rebounding back to around 40.5c within a few hours. Meanwhile, the 84-85°F option surged from 33.5c to 44c before fluctuating. This volatility was caused by minor discrepancies between near-term weather models (predicting either 83°F or 84°F), which triggered intense market speculation and swinging expectations between these two adjacent brackets.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data, what is the actual frequency of the highest temperature reaching 90°F or higher at the Dallas KDAL station in mid-April over the past few years?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 17?
Weather|$65.0k Vol|
time46 mins

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
80-81°F(No)
+5.2¢
76-77°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current prediction market prices and the latest meteorological forecast models, the high te...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 82-83°F option surged from 10c to 37c, while the 78-79°F option plunged from 28.5c to a low of 15.5c. This was caused by the latest near-term meteorological models confirming a strong warm front system affecting the Midwest, significantly raising intraday high-temperature expectations. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, as traders relocated capital to higher temperature buckets above 80°F, previous frontrunners 76-77°F and 78-79°F plunged from their peaks of 22.5c and 28.5c respectively, losing their lead.
AI Analysis
How exactly does this prediction market for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on April 17 resolve (ELI5), and what happens if Wunderground revises the data after it is finalized?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 17?
Weather|$23.4k Vol|
time46 mins

Highest temperature in Austin on April 17?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
90-91°F(Yes)
+6.8¢
84-85°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., NWS predicts a high near 90°F, AccuWeath...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of the 86-87°F option tumbled from around 30.5c to 13.5c, while the 90-91°F option surged from 25c to a peak of 39c (currently 31.5c). The reason is that short-term weather forecasts updated the expected high temperature to around 89-90°F, shifting the overall market expectation toward higher temperature brackets. Prior to this forecast adjustment, no other options experienced price movements exceeding 10 cents over the past 3 days, and market expectations across brackets were relatively stable.
AI Analysis
When does Wunderground typically finalize the daily highest temperature for the Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS) station, and is there any risk of delayed data updates?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
90
YesNo
36¢
69¢
50.1¢
49.9¢
+14.1¢
0¢
30
YesNo
100¢
0.1¢
100¢
0.1¢
0¢
0¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Last Week High Breakout Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakout: whether the price breaks above last week highest price (0/1) Positive Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0420, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0680, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, 0.0920, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0680, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0270, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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