Politics|$5,957 Vol|
82 days 1 hrsSouth Carolina Governor Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mullins McLeod
YesNo
Jermaine Johnson
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 18:41 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite 67% of voters being undecided, Jermaine Johnson is the only viable frontrunner (polling at 25%). In contrast, Mullins McLeod is polling in single digits (8%) and his campaign is effectively dead due to the August 2025 arrest scandal and calls from the party to drop out. The market's 20-cent pricing for McLeod is completely detached from fundamentals; his fair value is near zero. Johnson's fair value is set at 82 cents, leaving a ~13% buffer for potential 'Other' dark horse candidates or uncertainty.
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Rule Risk
There is a moderate rule blind spot. While the market only lists two candidates (Jermaine Johnson and Mullins McLeod), sources like Ballotpedia identify a third Democratic candidate, Justin Bennett. If Bennett wins, standard logic implies Johnson and McLeod resolve to 'No', but the rules only explicitly define 'Other' as a resolution if 'no primary takes place', creating ambiguity for an 'unlisted winner' scenario. Additionally, McLeod is embroiled in a scandal (arrest footage), creating a risk of him dropping out, which complicates the competitive landscape.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market price implies a 20% win probability for Mullins McLeod, which completely contradicts fundamentals. The latest Feb 4 poll shows him at only 8% support, compounded by an arrest scandal and party pressure to drop out. Typically, such a candidate should have <5% odds. The high market price is likely due to extremely low liquidity preventing price correction or irrational holders remaining in the market.
