The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 160-179 bracket surged from around 5c to 28c, the 140-159 bracket surged from around 3c to 22c, and the 180-199 bracket surged from around 9c to 23c. This is because as the tracking days increase, Musk's actual tweet count demonstrates a consistently stable and lower-than-initially-expected trend, prompting the market to further concentrate bets on lower brackets. Earlier on April 28, 2026: Multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

The rules contain significant caveats: normal replies do not count (which make up the majority of Musk's activity), but main-feed replies do. Deleted posts count if kept for >5 minutes. Furthermore, resolution heavily relies on a specific custom tracker, which may yield vastly different totals compared to a user's manual count on X.

Betting on the exact number of tweets a public figure makes in a specific week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Ordinary people do not ponder the exact statistical count of such trivial daily activities, making it a classic novelty prediction market.

April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' fluctuated between 74.5c and 98.9c several times. This was likely due to large orders sweeping an illiquid order book, but prices quickly recovered to near 99c as his projected victory remained fundamentally unchallenged. April 28, 2026, the prices of almost all underdog options (e.g., Olivia Dean, Ella Langley, BTS) abnormally spiked from under 1c to roughly 50c for a brief moment before crashing back down. This was likely due to an illiquid market experiencing a 'fat finger' trade or short-term market manipulation. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' surged from roughly 41.5c to 97.5c, while all other options crashed from around 41c to under 1c. This was driven by the release of first-week tracking projections indicating Noah Kahan would debut at #1 by a wide margin.

Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 13c to 41.5c, while the 60-79 option plunged from 41.7c to 2.5c. This was due to a sudden and significant increase in Trump's actual posting frequency, causing the market to sharply revise expected totals upward. May 1, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option rebounded from 26c to 40c, and the 60-79 option surged from 11c to 39.2c, as the accumulated data at the halfway point strongly indicates the final total will fall into this range, leading to rapid capital concentration. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 17.2c to 36.1c, while the 120-139 option plunged from 10.5c to 5c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 18.5c to 16.5c, as the posting pace slowed down further, causing market expectations for the total to be significantly downgraded and converge downwards. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for 80-99 dropped from 30c to 26c and then rebounded to 38c, as posting frequency fluctuated but stabilized, concentrating market expectations in the mid-to-high range. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, as the posting frequency rebounded during the day, the market's expected total was revised upward again, with the Yes price of the 120-139 option rebounding from 11c to 18.5c, while the 40-59 option quickly dropped from 16.5c to around 7c. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option plunged from 20.5c to 11c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 21c to 14.5c. This is due to a slower-than-expected posting pace entering the second day, leading the market to downgrade high-end estimates. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price for the 100-119 option fluctuated from 19.5c to 20.5c, the 120-139 option rebounded from 18c to 23.5c, and the 40-59 option rose from 8.35c to 14.8c. This was due to changes in the posting pace entering the second day, leading to adjustments in market expectations for the final total. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the Yes price for the 80-99 option dropped from 55.5c to 32.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 45c to 25.5c. This was due to a recalibration of extreme expectations as the actual posting data from the first day became available. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.