May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: As the resolution date approached and weather models were continuously updated, options such as 21°C, 20°C, and 19°C experienced price fluctuations exceeding 10 cents. Specifically, the price for 21°C surged to 48c on May 2 before pulling back to 36c. Meanwhile, the price for 19°C dropped from 13.5c on May 1 to around 8.5c, as meteorological forecasts gradually ruled out the likelihood of lower temperatures.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 28c to 61c due to meteorological models converging and adjusting the expected high temperature upwards. May 1, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 15.5c to 35.5c, also driven by short-term weather forecast adjustments that ruled out lower temperatures.

The main risk lies in the location discrepancy: the title mentions 'Tel Aviv,' but the resolution source strictly relies on data from Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG) in Lod, which is about 20 km away and has a different microclimate. Bettors using generic Tel Aviv city forecasts might miscalculate. Additionally, the resolution truncates to whole degrees Celsius.

May 2, 2026 03:33 - May 2, 2026 12:13, the price of the 26°C option surged from 26c to 46.5c. This was driven by an updated weather forecast model anticipating a high of around 79°F (26°C). May 1, 2026 10:13 - May 2, 2026 12:13, the price of the 24°C option plunged from 23.5c to 6c, as closer-term forecasts confidently predicted warmer weather, prompting the market to price out the cooler scenario.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a common but niche prediction market topic. While weather forecasting is typical, it is not a mainstream focus for the general public or investors.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the '26°C or higher' option surged from 26.5c to 88.5c because weather forecasting models confirmed an impending warm-up as the event date approached, raising the expected high temperatures to 26°C-27°C. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the '24°C' option plummeted from 22c to 0.6c because the upward revision in expected maximum temperatures made this outcome highly improbable.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The options '34°C or below', '35°C', and '36°C' all experienced severe fluctuations exceeding 10c. Specifically, '34°C or below' dropped from a peak of 56c to around 36c, '35°C' surged from 14.5c to 35c, and '36°C' experienced wild swings between 7.5c and 35.5c. The reason is the micro-adjustments in real-time weather forecasting systems as the resolution date approaches, triggering rapid reassessments of expectations.