May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: As rain forecasts continued to materialize, the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to ~3.5c, and the 29°C option fell from 45.5c to 32c. Meanwhile, the 27°C option surged intra-day to 22.7c before settling at 14.7c, and the 28°C option remained high around 44c. The reason is that satellite imagery hours before resolution showed rainbands fully covering Hong Kong, heavily suppressing daytime heating. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' surged from ~26.5c to around 60.5c as viewership data heading into the weekend showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.