All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
PSG
YesNo
Real Madrid
YesNo
Bayern Munich
YesNo
Sporting
YesNo
Arsenal
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
Galatasaray
YesNo
Atletico Madrid
YesNo
Barcelona
YesNo
Tottenham
YesNo
Newcastle
YesNo
Atalanta
YesNo
Club Brugge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:06 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has been completely stagnant from March 14 to 17, with all major option prices effectively flatlining. This low volatility suggests extreme caution among participants ahead of the quarter-final draw or the next match phase. Our valuation model remains unchanged, and the core discrepancies persist: 1. **Real Madrid** at 9.5c remains the largest mispricing. After eliminating the favorite Man City, Real's implied probability of <10% is significantly lower than traditional models (which would suggest ~20%). 2. **Bayern Munich** at 22.5c is slightly overpriced given the potential difficulty of their path; fair value is adjusted to 19c. 3. **Arsenal** at 25.5c fairly reflects their status as current favorites with strong squad depth. 4. **PSG** at 11.5c still offers alpha, as their bracket path avoids major heavyweights, meaning their probability of reaching the final is undervalued.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The primary outlier is **Real Madrid**. Polymarket currently prices Real at only 9.5c (~9.5% probability), ranking them behind Arsenal, Bayern, Barcelona, and even PSG. However, in traditional sports betting and mainstream punditry, a Real Madrid side that just beat Man City 3-0 would immediately be installed as a top-2 favorite (odds usually around 4.0-5.0, i.e., 20%-25% probability). The prediction market's reaction is not only lagging but seems to be overly penalizing Real for future schedule difficulty while ignoring their dominant performance.
