All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Manolis Siopis
YesNo
Igor Jesus
YesNo
Gianluca Mancini
YesNo
Elliot Anderson
YesNo
Jayden Oosterwolde
YesNo
Philip Billing
YesNo
Fred
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 18:26 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is severely broken, with the sum of 'Yes' prices aggregating to ~210%, whereas a single-winner market must theoretically sum to 100%. This mathematical impossibility indicates massive premiums on all options. Elliot Anderson is assigned the highest fair value due to the alphabetical tiebreaker advantage. Jayden Oosterwolde and Gianluca Mancini retain significant value due to the aggressive nature of their teams (Fenerbahce and Roma). We have discounted all prices significantly to fit a realistic 100% probability model.
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Rule Risk
There is a risk of rule interpretation. First, the market defines the 'tally' as a simple sum (Yellow=1, Red=1), whereas the provided UEFA official link defaults to sorting by Red Card severity, potentially misleading users about the actual 'total cards' leader. Second, the tie-breaker logic is precarious: it defers first to UEFA official ranking (which often weights Reds higher) and then to an 'alphabetical by last name' rule, which introduces significant arbitrary variance and luck.
Movers
From March 12, 2026, to March 13, 2026, the market underwent a severe collective correction. Prices for Philip Billing (42.5c -> 30c), Igor Jesus (42.5c -> 30.5c), Jayden Oosterwolde (41.5c -> 29.5c), and Gianluca Mancini (41.5c -> 30c) all plummeted by more than 10 cents. This was likely due to market participants realizing the absurdity of the previous total pricing (>600%) or a recalibration of expectations following a matchday update.
Divergence
The implied total probability of ~210% derived from market prices fundamentally diverges from reality (100%). Mainstream sports analytics would never support 5 different players each having a 35% chance of winning a single exclusive award. This suggests market liquidity is driven by irrational actors ignoring basic probability logic of mutually exclusive events.
