Retrieve the official UEFA Europa League 2025-26 disciplinary statistics to confirm the current yellow card counts for top contenders like Igor Jesus and Václav Jemelka, analyze the order book depth given the low $1,500 volume, and update the fair value assessment considering the impact of the 'Alphabetical Last Name' tie-breaker rule.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the official UEFA Europa League 2025-26 disciplinary statistics to confirm the current yellow card counts for top contenders like Igor Jesus and Václav Jemelka, analyze the order book depth given the low $1,500 volume, and update the fair value assessment considering the impact of the 'Alphabetical Last Name' tie-breaker rule.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest 2025-26 Europa League tournament bracket and disciplinary records to verify which of the listed players (e.g., Philip Billing, Fred) are still active in the competition and exactly how many yellow cards they currently trail the leader by.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest 2025-26 Europa League tournament bracket and disciplinary records to verify which of the listed players (e.g., Philip Billing, Fred) are still active in the competition and exactly how many yellow cards they currently trail the leader by.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compare the odds of players with early-alphabet last names (e.g., Philip Billing) versus those with late-alphabet names (e.g., Ismail Yuksek) to calculate if the market is correctly pricing the significant risk premium of the 'Alphabetical Last Name' tie-breaker rule in the event of a draw.

AI-powered analysis for: Compare the odds of players with early-alphabet last names (e.g., Philip Billing) versus those with late-alphabet names (e.g., Ismail Yuksek) to calculate if the market is correctly pricing the significant risk premium of the 'Alphabetical Last Name' tie-breaker rule in the event of a draw.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Soccer|$2,401 Vol|

63 days 1 hrs

UEFA Europa League: Most Yellow Cards - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Manolis Siopis

YesNo

50¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+42¢

Igor Jesus

YesNo

45.5¢

54.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+37.5¢

Jayden Oosterwolde

YesNo

45.5¢

54.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+33.5¢

Philip Billing

YesNo

45.5¢

54.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+30.5¢

Fred

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

03.15 18:27 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market is in a state of severe pricing inefficiency, with the sum of 'Yes' prices creating an implied probability of ~186%, far exceeding the 100% limit for mutually exclusive events. This premium is driven by extremely low liquidity (~$2400 volume). Based on 'Winner Takes All' and 'Alphabetical Tie-breaker' rules, Philip Billing (Last name starts with B) is assigned the highest fair value, followed by defender Oosterwolde. Current market prices (~45c) are drastically overvalued.

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Exotics

While football prop bets are common, betting on 'Most Yellow Cards' for an entire season is a relatively niche statistic compared to outright winners or the Golden Boot (top scorer). It appeals to data-driven bettors but is somewhat obscure for the general public.

Movers

2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, Fred's price crashed from 22.65c to 1.15c, marking a correction after an anomaly in this low-liquidity market. 2026-03-13 to 2026-03-14, Fred's price spiked from 1.55c to 22.65c, driven by irregular trading activity without fundamental news support.

Divergence

Severe divergence. The market implies that 4 separate players each have a ~45% chance of winning, which is mathematically impossible (Sum >> 100%). This reflects a complete detachment of market pricing from real-world statistical probabilities due to lack of liquidity.

UEFA Europa League: Most Yellow Cards - AI Odds Analysis

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