All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Benoît Saint Denis
YesNo
Paddy Pimblett
YesNo
Ilia Topuria
YesNo
Conor McGregor
YesNo
Arman Tsarukyan
YesNo
Mateusz Gamrot
YesNo
Maurício Ruffy
YesNo
Alexander Volkanovski
YesNo
Dan Hooker
YesNo
Justin Gaethje
YesNo
Islam Makhachev
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.07 01:44 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current simulated date is March 7, 2026. Max Holloway is scheduled to fight Charles Oliveira tonight at UFC 326. This market predicts his *next* opponent after this bout. Intelligence indicates Dana White will announce the 'White House card' lineup tomorrow, with rumors linking a Holloway vs. McGregor rematch to this event. Alternatively, Justin Gaethje holds the Interim Lightweight belt and is in line for Champion Ilia Topuria, but a Holloway victory tonight would position him to call out Topuria directly. Holloway has expressed disinterest in a Gaethje rematch. Thus, Topuria (Title fight) and McGregor (White House super fight) are the highest probability outcomes. The current 50c pricing for Pimblett/Gamrot reflects illiquidity, not reality.
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Divergence
Severe divergence exists. The market prices for non-contender options (Pimblett, Gamrot, Ruffy) imply a ~50% probability, which is completely detached from media consensus. Experts agree Holloway's immediate future lies with Topuria (Title) or McGregor (Money Fight), with zero realistic chance of fighting prospects like Ruffy or BSD next. This is a classic 'zombie market' pricing error.
