Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$155.4k Vol|
time608 days 3 hrs

Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch? - AI Found 3.8% APY

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Last updated: 04.27 09:01
Top Undervalued
+26.5¢
$2B(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
6¢
Arbitrage
3.8%
Annualized yield

Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch? AI analysis: • +26.5¢ undervalued • 3.8% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes on '$800M' (26c) and buy No on '$1B' (68c) simultaneously. The total cost is 94c. Regardless of the outcome, this combination guarantees at least a 100c payout (and a 200c payout if the FDV lands strictly between 800M and 1B), locking in a risk-free arbitrage. Plan Description: This is a classic risk-free logical inclusion arbitrage. Since an FDV > $1B strictly implies an FDV ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The logical monotonicity in the current market pricing remains severely broken and has worsened. For...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?
Weather|$87.8k Vol|
time10 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+21¢
29°C(No)
+17.5¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts and current market data, Hong Kong will be heavily affected by...
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Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: As rain forecasts continued to materialize, the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to ~3.5c, and the 29°C option fell from 45.5c to 32c. Meanwhile, the 27°C option surged intra-day to 22.7c before settling at 14.7c, and the 28°C option remained high around 44c. The reason is that satellite imagery hours before resolution showed rainbands fully covering Hong Kong, heavily suppressing daytime heating. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.
AI Analysis
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Culture|$21.1k Vol|
time1 days 22 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+69¢
Should I Marry A Murderer?(No)
+37¢
Man on Fire: Season 1(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current sum of 'Yes' prices across all options is approximately 144c, indicating significant ove...
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Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' surged from ~26.5c to around 60.5c as viewership data heading into the weekend showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
Weather|$48.4k Vol|
time10 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+26.5¢
23°C(No)
+9¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature at Tokyo (Haneda Airport) on May ...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
$2B
YesNo
41.5¢
58.5¢
15¢
85¢
+26.5¢
$800M
YesNo
27.5¢
72.5¢
35¢
65¢
+7.5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
This is a speculative market on the future valuation of a specific crypto project (Unit Network). While predicting FDV for new token launches is common in crypto, Unit is relatively niche compared to major L1/L2s. It requires specific knowledge of the project's tokenomics and hype cycle, making it a niche interest.
Movers
April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the $1B option surged from 23c to 34.5c before settling at 32c, causing a severe pricing inversion (pricing it higher than the $800M option). This is highly likely a liquidity imbalance caused by irrational buying. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the $400M option jumped from 43.5c to 57.5c, reflecting an overall increase in market expectations for a successful Unit token launch. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the $200M option price plunged from 54.5c to 44c, reflecting a significant shakeup in the market's baseline confidence regarding Unit's ability to successfully launch a token before the end of 2027. March 19, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the $1.5B option price fell consistently from 38c to 25c, correcting its previous extreme premium relative to $1B and $2B options. During the same period, the $3B option experienced a 'V-shaped' reversal, dropping from 18c to 6.5c (March 23) before bouncing back to 15.5c on March 24, highlighting extreme illiquidity. March 11, 2026 - March 17, 2026, option prices entered a period of low-liquidity chaotic oscillation. The market exhibited pricing logic errors (higher valuation options priced above lower valuation ones), characterized by a lack of market makers maintaining a smooth pricing curve. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the price of the $1B option surged from 15.5c to 32c before retracing. This extreme intraday volatility was likely caused by a 'fat-finger' trade in a liquidity-dry long-tail option, or an aggressive individual whale bet, which the market subsequently corrected.

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