What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? - AI Found +11.7¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$192.4k Vol|

4 days 7 hrs

What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? - AI Found +11.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+11.7¢

↑ 78,000(Yes)

+9.2¢

↑ 80,000(No)

+5.3¢

↓ 74,000(Yes)

What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? AI analysis: • +11.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$177.6k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices follow a normal distribution centered around the 180-299 range. Elon Musk's ac...

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The rules explicitly exclude standard replies (unless on the main feed) and designate a specific third-party tracker for resolution. Traders might easily miscount if they only estimate from his X profile without filtering or checking the tracker.

This is a highly entertainment-driven and novelty market. Mainstream individuals rarely attempt to seriously predict the exact number of posts a public figure makes in a specific week.

Based on historical data, what is the average weekly number of Elon Musk's main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts over the past year to help benchmark the current options?

Soccer|$27.5k Vol|

English Premier League - Most Assists

Top Undervalued

Bruno Fernandes(No)

Granit Xhaka(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Bruno Fernandes' yes price has stabilized at a very high level (>99c). With less than 5 days remaini...

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[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Edge Assessment: Analyze the specific rule stating "ties resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically." Quantify the value edge this gives to Rayan Cherki (C) or Bruno Fernandes (F) over players like Granit Xhaka (X). If assist counts are currently close, do the current odds sufficiently price in this massive "win-on-tie" advantage?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official EPL assist statistics for the 2025-2026 season (as of Feb 2026) and compare the current rankings of options like Granit Xhaka and Bruno Fernandes against their Polymarket odds. Given the low liquidity ($5.8k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread for potential arbitrage opportunities or significant slippage risks.

[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Edge Assessment: Analyze the specific rule stating "ties resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically." Quantify the value edge this gives to Rayan Cherki (C) or Bruno Fernandes (F) over players like Granit Xhaka (X). If assist counts are currently close, do the current odds sufficiently price in this massive "win-on-tie" advantage?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official EPL assist statistics for the 2025-2026 season (as of Feb 2026) and compare the current rankings of options like Granit Xhaka and Bruno Fernandes against their Polymarket odds. Given the low liquidity ($5.8k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread for potential arbitrage opportunities or significant slippage risks.

football|$28.6k Vol|

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued

Denver Broncos(No)

Cleveland Browns(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...

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The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.

Politics|$323.3k Vol|

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued

Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)

Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...

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The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.

This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

[Category 1: Key Timeline Check] Search for the current expiration schedule of US congressional Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to see if there is a critical budget cliff aligning with the January 31, 2026 deadline. Verify the congressional calendar, specifically analyzing 'Lame Duck' sessions or early new-Congress recesses, to determine if procedural delays create a technical risk of a shutdown due to lack of legislative time.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

Tech|$327.0k Vol|

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...

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The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.

The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.

Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

↑ 78,000

YesNo

69¢

33¢

80.7¢

19.3¢

+11.7¢

0¢

↑ 80,000

YesNo

29¢

73¢

17.8¢

82.2¢

0¢

+9.2¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0280, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 1: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0330, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 2: Weekly Price Change, -0.0080, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0330, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0050, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Culture|$177.6k Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices follow a normal distribution centered around the 180-299 range. Elon Musk's ac...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules explicitly exclude standard replies (unless on the main feed) and designate a specific third-party tracker for resolution. Traders might easily miscount if they only estimate from his X profile without filtering or checking the tracker.

This is a highly entertainment-driven and novelty market. Mainstream individuals rarely attempt to seriously predict the exact number of posts a public figure makes in a specific week.

Based on historical data, what is the average weekly number of Elon Musk's main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts over the past year to help benchmark the current options?

Soccer|$27.5k Vol|

English Premier League - Most Assists

Top Undervalued

Bruno Fernandes(No)

Granit Xhaka(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Bruno Fernandes' yes price has stabilized at a very high level (>99c). With less than 5 days remaini...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Edge Assessment: Analyze the specific rule stating "ties resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically." Quantify the value edge this gives to Rayan Cherki (C) or Bruno Fernandes (F) over players like Granit Xhaka (X). If assist counts are currently close, do the current odds sufficiently price in this massive "win-on-tie" advantage?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official EPL assist statistics for the 2025-2026 season (as of Feb 2026) and compare the current rankings of options like Granit Xhaka and Bruno Fernandes against their Polymarket odds. Given the low liquidity ($5.8k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread for potential arbitrage opportunities or significant slippage risks.

[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Edge Assessment: Analyze the specific rule stating "ties resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically." Quantify the value edge this gives to Rayan Cherki (C) or Bruno Fernandes (F) over players like Granit Xhaka (X). If assist counts are currently close, do the current odds sufficiently price in this massive "win-on-tie" advantage?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official EPL assist statistics for the 2025-2026 season (as of Feb 2026) and compare the current rankings of options like Granit Xhaka and Bruno Fernandes against their Polymarket odds. Given the low liquidity ($5.8k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread for potential arbitrage opportunities or significant slippage risks.

football|$28.6k Vol|

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued

Denver Broncos(No)

Cleveland Browns(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...

🔓 Log in to see more

The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.

Politics|$323.3k Vol|

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued

Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)

Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...

🔓 Log in to see more

The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.

This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

[Category 1: Key Timeline Check] Search for the current expiration schedule of US congressional Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to see if there is a critical budget cliff aligning with the January 31, 2026 deadline. Verify the congressional calendar, specifically analyzing 'Lame Duck' sessions or early new-Congress recesses, to determine if procedural delays create a technical risk of a shutdown due to lack of legislative time.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

Tech|$327.0k Vol|

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.

The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.

Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?

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What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? - AI Found +11.7¢ Mispricing