With only about 2 days left until resolution, the certainty of weather forecasts has significantly i...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of 27°C surged from 20c to 30c, while 28°C plummeted from 27c to 15c, as the latest short-term meteorological models converged, narrowing the expected high temperature closer to 27°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price for '30°C or higher' surged from 27c to 49c before falling back to around 12c, likely due to an early meteorological model predicting unusually high temperatures that was later corrected. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price for 28°C rose from 20.5c to 33.5c, then fell back to 27c, reflecting short-term market adjustments towards higher temperature expectations. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price for 27°C dropped from 31c to 23.5c, then recovered to 27.5c, indicating that the market consensus for 27°C as the high temperature stabilized after some volatility. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price for '20°C or below' plummeted from 26c to around 0.6c, as weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extremely low temperatures.

According to the latest prediction market prices, the current probabilities are mainly concentrated ...

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day is a typical weather prediction market. While people check weather daily, trading on specific degree ranges is somewhat niche and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or local residents.

2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of '14°C' surged from 19c to 42c, as approaching weather forecasts increasingly confirmed that the daily high temperature is highly likely to fall within this range. 2026-03-30 to 2026-03-31, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 41.5c to 14.5c because weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '11°C' spiked from 17.5c to 31.5c before falling back to 2.9c, due to short-term weather forecast fluctuations causing temporary shifts in market expectations. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '10°C' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.45c as weather forecasts gradually confirmed that the temperature would be higher than this range on that day.

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International...

Although weather derivatives exist in niche financial circles, betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a single day is relatively obscure and mundane, lacking broad social engagement and conversational appeal.

March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 0.29c to 0.395c, as some meteorological models indicated delayed rainfall, increasing the potential for daytime heating. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 0.055c to 0.265c, as short-term weather forecasting models adjusted high-temperature expectations upwards, making 29°C a strong contender. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 23°C or below option plummeted from 0.0795c to 0.0035c, because short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.

Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate a high of 27°C (80°F) for April 2, while Polymarket traders currently favor 28°C (36%). This divergence may be due to traders factoring in localized urban heat island effects at the airport station or slight lags in forecast model updates.

As of approximately 10:30 AM local time on April 2 in Taiwan, temperatures in the Taoyuan Airport ar...

The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Taipei,' but the detailed rules explicitly state that resolution is based on data from 'Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (RCTP).' Since the airport is located in Taoyuan City rather than downtown Taipei, and temperatures often differ significantly between the two due to microclimates, this creates a major rule trap for traders who only read the title and check Taipei's forecast.

Predicting the exact weather of a specific location on a given date is a niche novelty topic in prediction markets. While not extremely bizarre, the general public does not typically ponder such hyper-specific daily weather details unprompted.

Between Apr 1 and Apr 2, 2026, the price of '26°C' surged from 20c to a peak of 50.5c (currently at 29.5c), '25°C' plunged from 32c to 14c, and '28°C' briefly spiked from 3.9c to 24.6c before dropping back to 1.7c. This volatility was driven by real-time weather forecasts confirming clear skies and stronger daytime heating as the resolution day arrived, shifting consensus from 24-25°C up to the 26-27°C range. Between Mar 31 and Apr 1, 2026, the price of '26°C' surged from 26.5c to 40.5c (before settling at 33c), and '27°C' rose from 9.5c to 20.5c. This was driven by updated weather models indicating reduced rain probability and cloud cover, pushing expected afternoon highs upward. Between 14:35 and 16:45 on Mar 30, 2026, the price of '26°C' plunged from 21.5c to 9.5c, as updated weather models reinforced the expectation that rain would suppress peak daytime temperatures. Between 19:05 and 20:10 on Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '29°C or higher' surged from 13c to 25.5c, '24°C' from 17c to 25c, and '25°C' from 16.5c to 24.5c. This was likely driven by speculative buying across multiple options due to a lack of market consensus, significantly inflating the overall Yes prices.

As April 3 approaches, weather forecast models have further converged. Due to expected rainfall, the...

The title broadly says 'Shanghai', but rules strictly specify the Pudong Airport station (ZSPD), which is coastal and can have a temperature variance from downtown. Additionally, resolving purely on Wunderground's integer Celsius data and ignoring post-finalization revisions creates pitfalls for traders relying on general weather apps.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 6c to 21c, as the latest weather forecasts indicated rain on April 3, leading to lower high-temperature expectations. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '20°C or higher' option plummeted from 28c to 2c, and the 19°C option dropped from 26.5c to 3.5c, because short-term forecasts became clearer and increased precipitation chances ruled out abnormal high temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the 16°C option surged from 17c to 37c, because forecasting models converged, ruling out extreme cold and heat, making this range the most likely outcome for the daily high.