What price will Bitcoin hit on May 12?
Crypto|$20.0k Vol|
time20 hrs 16 mins

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 12? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+2.4¢
↓ 79,000(No)
+2.2¢
↓ 80,000(No)
+1.1¢
↓ 78,000(Yes)

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 12? AI analysis: • +2.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections|$25.1k Vol|
time6 days 16 hrs

PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
Ryan Crosswell(Yes)
+1.4¢
Carol Obando-Derstine(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With about a week left until the May 19 primary, Bob Brooks has further consolidated his lead, with ...
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AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner' market, specifically analyzing the spread risks caused by the extremely low liquidity ($320 volume), and check user discussions to assess whether the absence of incumbent Susan Wild from the listed options constitutes a major arbitrage opportunity for 'Other' or a resolution rule pitfall.
New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$414.5k Vol|
time20 days 16 hrs

New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
Robert Lebovics(Yes)
+0.5¢
Vinnie Brand(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market maintains a duopoly structure, with the race between Alex Zdan and Richard Tabor remainin...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in the upcoming 'Filing Deadline'. With the deadline around March 23, 2026, and the current date being March 11, there is a 12-day window for new, unlisted candidates to enter the race. Notable figures like Alina Habba (recently blocked from a US Attorney role) or Vinnie Brand could officially file. If the winner is not one of the named options and the market lacks a tradable 'Field/Other Candidate' option (the rules only explicitly define 'Other' for a 'no primary' scenario), this creates significant resolution ambiguity and risk of a 'dark horse' victory.
AI Analysis
Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment. Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, given the extremely low volume of $187, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth to assess liquidity trap risks. Simultaneously, retrieve recent campaign activities or official statements from candidates like Alina Habba or Vinnie Brand to determine if current odds are significantly disconnected from their actual intra-party support.
Lowest temperature in London on May 12?
Weather|$19.9k Vol|
time4 hrs 16 mins

Lowest temperature in London on May 12?

Top Undervalued
+70.5¢
5°C(No)
+31.4¢
4°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest general weather forecasts, London's overall minimum temperature on May 12 is...
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Movers
May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the 4°C option surged from 9c to 32.5c because updated meteorological models closer to the date showed a higher probability of early morning temperatures dipping lower on May 12. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the 3°C option temporarily spiked from 5c to 21c before falling back to 7c, reflecting short-term sharp volatility in the extreme lower bounds of forecast models. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the 7°C option dropped from 17.5c down to 10.5c (hitting a low of 4c in between) due to an overall downward revision in temperature expectations, reducing the likelihood of higher minimum temperatures.
AI Analysis
Based on the last decade of data, how frequently has the lowest temperature on May 12 at London City Airport (EGLC) fallen into the specific bracket options?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 12?
Weather|$18.6k Vol|
time4 hrs 16 mins

Lowest temperature in Paris on May 12?

Top Undervalued
+74.4¢
4°C(No)
+20.4¢
3°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the lowest temperature at Paris Le Bourget Airport...
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a common niche category in prediction markets. Betting on the lowest temperature for a specific city on a particular day is moderately conventional, but not a mainstream topic of widespread public discussion.
Movers
May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026: The price of the '6°C' option spiked from 4.5c to 36c (currently settling at 24.5c), while the '3°C' option briefly dropped to 9c before rebounding to 25c. This was caused by short-term fluctuations and corrections in the expected temperature distribution due to updated weather models. Previous analysis period: No significant price movements (no changes >10 cents in the last 3 days).
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather frequency statistics for mid-May in Paris, which temperature range does the lowest temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on May 12 typically fall into?
Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$610.3k Vol|
time6 days 16 hrs

Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Mike Collins(Yes)
+0.1¢
Derek Dooley(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate an ongoing tight race between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley. Collins'...
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Rule Risk
This event carries a medium risk due to the potential misalignment between Georgia's election laws and the market's expiration date. Georgia requires a '50% + 1' majority to avoid a runoff. With three strong contenders (Derek Dooley, Mike Collins, Earl Carter), it is highly probable that no single candidate will secure an outright victory on the May 19th primary, triggering a runoff on June 16th. The market expiration is listed as May 19th. Unless the platform has explicit rules to 'extend' the market in the event of a runoff, or clearly defines 'Winner' as the plurality vote-getter versus the eventual nominee, this creates significant ambiguity for settlement.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 79,000
YesNo
15.5¢
84.5¢
13.1¢
86.9¢
0¢
+2.4¢
↓ 80,000
YesNo
47¢
53¢
44.8¢
55.2¢
0¢
+2.2¢

Expand to view all 15 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, 0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Positive Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Positive Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0040, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Positive Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, 0.0120, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Positive Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0770, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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