There are notable rule pitfalls, as the classification of 'replies' and 'deleted posts' relies heavily on a custom external tracker (xtracker). The tracker's API latency (~5 minutes) and specific handling of replies on the main feed can easily lead to discrepancies between manual user counts and the final resolution.

This is a typical novelty social media market. Ordinary people or professional investors would not naturally predict the exact number of posts a specific crypto celebrity makes in a future 7-day window. It exists purely to satisfy niche betting demands.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for '<20' surged from 16.5c to 79c, while '20-39' plummeted from 83c to 12c. This was driven by the realization that CZ's actual posting volume is extremely low as the tracking period progresses, leading the market to heavily price in a total count under 20. April 28, 2026, 16:03 - 17:08, massive fluctuations occurred across options: Yes for 160-179 dropped from 49.95c to 48.3c, while Yes for 120-139 spiked from 2.45c to 14.95c, 100-119 surged from 27.35c to 44.25c, and 80-99 rose from 27.4c to 45.6c. These extreme moves were likely driven by a lack of liquidity or a major execution error by a whale. April 28, 2026, 05:58 - 16:03, Yes prices across most high-frequency brackets (e.g., 160-179, 140-159) experienced irrational spikes. Yes for 160-179 exploded from 1.05c to 49.95c. This is typical of market manipulation or fat-finger errors in extreme low-liquidity conditions. April 25 - April 26, 2026, Yes prices for all brackets except '20-39' crashed, e.g., '<20' fell from 50.5c to 18.5c, indicating severe repricing in the initial days.

Moderate risk exists as resolution strictly relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). Edge cases, such as deleted posts only counting if they survive ~5 minutes, and replies only counting if captured on the main feed by the tool, can easily cause discrepancies between manual counting and the official result.

Highly exotic and novelty-driven. Forecasting the precise number of weekly tweets from a local politician is extremely niche; general audiences would never naturally ponder this metric without a specific betting market.

Between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-02, the YES price for the '20-39' option pulled back from 92.5c to 78.5c. This is likely due to market uncertainty regarding the account's posting frequency over the remaining three days, causing some capital to take profits. Between 2026-04-28 16:03 and 2026-04-29 21:18, the YES price for the '20-39' option surged from 49.5c to 94.5c, while '<20' and '40-59' plummeted to below 5c. This was caused by the normalization of the previous liquidity anomaly as actual posting data became clear, concentrating funds on the most likely outcome. Between 2026-04-28 16:03 and 17:08, the YES prices of multiple options (60-79, 100-119, 140-159, 180-199) anomalously surged by 17c to over 30c. This was caused by irrational and indiscriminate buying of YES shares, heavily distorting the market's liquidity.

April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' fluctuated between 74.5c and 98.9c several times. This was likely due to large orders sweeping an illiquid order book, but prices quickly recovered to near 99c as his projected victory remained fundamentally unchallenged. April 28, 2026, the prices of almost all underdog options (e.g., Olivia Dean, Ella Langley, BTS) abnormally spiked from under 1c to roughly 50c for a brief moment before crashing back down. This was likely due to an illiquid market experiencing a 'fat finger' trade or short-term market manipulation. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' surged from roughly 41.5c to 97.5c, while all other options crashed from around 41c to under 1c. This was driven by the release of first-week tracking projections indicating Noah Kahan would debut at #1 by a wide margin.

The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 17:43 on May 1 and 02:23 on May 2, 2026, the '200+' option recovered from 21c to 25.5c, while the '160-179' option fell from 21c to 18c. This was likely due to a slight acceleration in the actual posting pace, leading to increased market expectations for the upper bracket. Between 07:58 and 18:48 on May 1, 2026, the '180-199' option surged from 36c to 62.5c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c (before recovering slightly to 17c). This was driven by the clarity of the posting pace, giving the market confidence that the total will exceed 179 and prompting a massive shift of capital into the 180-199 bracket. Between April 30 and May 1, 2026, the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c, while the '180-199' option rose from 27.5c to 47c. The '200+' option also saw gains. This was driven by a continued high rate of White House posts, which eliminated the possibility of lower brackets and forced capital into higher projections. Between April 28 and April 30, 2026, the '180-199' option rose from 24c to 42.5c, and the '200+' option surged from 7c to 25c, while '160-179' and '140-159' plummeted by over 30c from their highs. This was driven by actual tracker data showing a faster-than-expected posting rate as the period progressed, causing an upward shift in volume projections. Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets experienced brief and anomalous price spikes at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 13c to 41.5c, while the 60-79 option plunged from 41.7c to 2.5c. This was due to a sudden and significant increase in Trump's actual posting frequency, causing the market to sharply revise expected totals upward. May 1, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option rebounded from 26c to 40c, and the 60-79 option surged from 11c to 39.2c, as the accumulated data at the halfway point strongly indicates the final total will fall into this range, leading to rapid capital concentration. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 17.2c to 36.1c, while the 120-139 option plunged from 10.5c to 5c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 18.5c to 16.5c, as the posting pace slowed down further, causing market expectations for the total to be significantly downgraded and converge downwards. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for 80-99 dropped from 30c to 26c and then rebounded to 38c, as posting frequency fluctuated but stabilized, concentrating market expectations in the mid-to-high range. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, as the posting frequency rebounded during the day, the market's expected total was revised upward again, with the Yes price of the 120-139 option rebounding from 11c to 18.5c, while the 40-59 option quickly dropped from 16.5c to around 7c. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option plunged from 20.5c to 11c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 21c to 14.5c. This is due to a slower-than-expected posting pace entering the second day, leading the market to downgrade high-end estimates. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price for the 100-119 option fluctuated from 19.5c to 20.5c, the 120-139 option rebounded from 18c to 23.5c, and the 40-59 option rose from 8.35c to 14.8c. This was due to changes in the posting pace entering the second day, leading to adjustments in market expectations for the final total. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the Yes price for the 80-99 option dropped from 55.5c to 32.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 45c to 25.5c. This was due to a recalibration of extreme expectations as the actual posting data from the first day became available. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.