According to the latest weather forecast data, the high temperature at Seattle-Tacoma International ...

April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '52-53°F' option surged from 24.5c to 51c, as the latest short-term forecasts highly concentrated on this temperature range right before settlement. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '54-55°F' option plummeted from 41.5c to 24.5c, as meteorological models further ruled out anomalous warming. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '56-57°F' option plummeted from 21.05c to 6.15c, due to weather models downgrading the probability of higher temperatures. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the '54-55°F' option surged from 17c to a peak of 41.5c before settling at 35c, as some early forecast models leaned towards a higher temperature of 54°F, attracting significant buying. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '50-51°F' option fell from 31.5c to 15.5c, as weather forecast models shifted towards slightly higher temperature expectations as the date approaches. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '54-55°F' option climbed from 15c to 30c, due to updated weather forecasts indicating a significantly higher likelihood of temperatures reaching 54-55°F on April 2.

As of 7:29 UTC (15:29 Beijing time) on April 2, the daytime high temperature in Shanghai has likely ...

April 2, 2026 00:00 - April 2, 2026 06:30, the 22°C option surged from 38c to 85.5c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 43c to 0.05c. This was driven by real-time daytime temperature observations in Shanghai confirming the high breached 21°C and settled around 22°C. April 1, 2026 01:15 - April 2, 2026 00:00, the 22°C option steadily surged from 16c to 38c, while the 20°C option rose to 30c before falling back to 20c. This was driven by weather models converging on a slightly warmer expected high temperature as the resolution day approached. March 31, 2026 17:40 - April 1, 2026 13:10, the 18°C option spiked from ~8c to 20.5c before plummeting to 1.2c, as short-term models temporarily diverged on the timing of a weak cold front, which was later invalidated by updated data. March 30, 2026 02:40 - March 31, 2026 11:10, prices for 21°C and 22°C experienced high volatility and ultimately dominated the market (21°C surged from ~6c to 41.5c before settling at 27.5c), as short-term weather models converged to confirm a high of 21-22°C for the day. March 29, 2026 20:10 - March 30, 2026 09:10, the extreme high option (25°C or higher) plummeted from 25.5c to under 5c, as updated models ruled out the possibility of abnormal heat. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '15°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 12c, as updated meteorological models ruled out the possibility of a strong cold front during this period. March 29, 2026 21:15 - March 29, 2026 22:20, the price of '21°C' crashed from 19c to 6.5c, driven by an early temporary consensus downgrade in daytime high temperature forecasts.

With less than 3 days to resolution, weather forecast accuracy has significantly improved. Current m...

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price of '60-61°F' climbed from 28c to 36.5c, and '62-63°F' rose from 18c to 26c. This was driven by approaching resolution and updated short-term forecasts confirming the warming trend, causing capital to concentrate in the most likely central ranges. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The prices of '60-61°F' and '58-59°F' retraced slightly as forecast certainty increased and some traders took profits, combined with new point forecasts suggesting highs might lean slightly cooler. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '60-61°F' surged from 11.5c to 32.5c, and '58-59°F' spiked from 16.5c to 32c, driven by updated meteorological models indicating that upper-level ridging could bring warmer-than-average temperatures.

It is currently the day of resolution (April 2). The latest weather forecasts for Chicago O'Hare ind...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is somewhat niche and novel for average prediction market participants.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '48°F or higher' surged from 26c to 99c, driven by weather models fully confirming a strong warm advection that brings significant warming, eliminating the possibility of sustained cold temperatures. Mid-to-low temperature options (e.g., 40-47°F) collapsed to near zero accordingly.

With less than 24 hours until resolution, major meteorological models (such as ECMWF and GFS) for Ma...

March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '18°C' surged from 18c to 46c, and '17°C' surged from 17.5c to 38.5c, while '20°C' plummeted from 28.5c to 1.2c. This was driven by the convergence of weather forecast models as the target date approached, completely ruling out highs of 20°C and above and confirming a peak temperature in the 17-18°C range. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 11c to 37c, while '25°C or higher' plummeted from 26.3c to 0.4c. This was caused by weather forecast models converging as the target date approached, ruling out extreme heat and confirming temperatures settling around 17°C. March 29, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of '25°C or higher' surged from 1.5c to 13.95c, while '23°C' plummeted from 14c to 1.5c, as market participants reallocated capital and speculated on the distribution of extreme high temperatures.