What price will Ethereum hit on March 22?
Crypto|$11.3k Vol|
time16 hrs 48 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on March 22? - AI Found +17.8¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+17.8¢
↓ 2,050(Yes)
+16.9¢
↓ 2,000(Yes)
+14.1¢
↑ 2,150(No)

What price will Ethereum hit on March 22? AI analysis: • +17.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Beijing on March 23?
Weather|$10.9k Vol|
time2 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Beijing on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
20°C(Yes)
+17.5¢
19°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although previous analysis (based on older data) pointed to 16-17°C, recent market price dynamics sh...
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Movers
2026-03-21 02:40 - 2026-03-21 09:10, prices for 16°C surged from 12.5c to 25c, likely due to a repricing after a brief sell-off or extreme liquidity drying up causing a rebound. 2026-03-21 02:40 - 2026-03-21 04:50, prices for 17°C surged from 10.5c to 27.5c, indicating extremely high uncertainty in the mid-temperature range. 2026-03-21 00:30 - 2026-03-21 02:40, prices for 21°C crashed from 21.5c to 9c before rebounding back to 20c, such violent oscillation suggests the market is currently highly unstable and lacks a solid consensus.
Divergence
Significant divergence and structural distortion exist. Firstly, the total market price of 1.90 indicates massive irrational exuberance. Secondly, although price gravity seems to have shifted towards warmer temps (19-20°C), prices for 16°C and 17°C remain stubbornly high at 20-25c, contradicting the warming trend. This suggests market participants are hedging against conflicting weather models, or old limit orders have not been cancelled.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest weather forecast for Beijing Capital Airport (ZBAA) on March 23 from Wunderground, analyze the thin order book (under $250 volume) for bid-ask spreads, and assess if the implied probabilities for the 15-19°C range deviate from the fair value suggested by meteorological models.
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Tech|$17.6k Vol|
time38 days 12 hrs

Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)

Top Undervalued
+37¢
Anthropic(No)
+12.5¢
Google(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently 400.0, despite the rules explicitly stating there is only o...
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AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest order book data and user discussions for the "#1 AI Model end of April" event on Polymarket, analyze the current "Style Control On" Elo rankings on LMSYS Chatbot Arena to assess if the odds for top contenders like OpenAI and Google are fair, and evaluate the arbitrage potential and slippage risks given the low liquidity of $7,200.
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 24?
Weather|$35.2k Vol|
time2 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 24?

Top Undervalued
+13¢
22°C(No)
+9.5¢
20°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
New Zealand's authoritative MetService explicitly forecasts 20°C for Wellington on March 24, with no...
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Movers
March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 22°C plummeted from 26c to 9c, and '23°C or higher' crashed from 25c to 3.5c, as the approaching date and MetService's clear 20°C forecast eliminated the possibility of extreme heat, bursting the high-premium bubble. March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 19°C rose from 21c to 31.5c, as capital rotated out of fringe options and consolidated into the central range (19-21°C) aligned with the MetService forecast.
Divergence
Mild divergence exists: Market pricing (centered on 19-21°C) aligns closely with the local authority MetService (20°C) but largely ignores global major models (e.g., Google/The Weather Channel) which predict a cooler 18°C. The market appears to be betting entirely on local forecasting expertise.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth (considering the extremely low volume of $6.25), combine this with the latest weather forecasts from Wunderground and MetService, and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks for each temperature option.
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
Weather|$44.6k Vol|
time1 days 0 hrs

Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+74.4¢
20°C(No)
+34.8¢
21°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is heavily skewed towards 19°C and 20°C (combined ~73%), likely overreacting to a specifi...
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Movers
From March 20 to March 21, 2026, the price of the 23°C option crashed from 29c to 4c, while the 19°C option surged from 20c to 39c. This movement appears to be a drastic reaction to a cooler forecast appearing on the Wunderground website (suggesting ~18°C-19°C), causing traders to dump the previously favored warmer option (23°C) and consolidate bets on 19°C and 20°C.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market pricing implies a high probability of 19-20°C, aligning with Wunderground's text forecast (65°F). However, major weather providers (AccuWeather, QWeather, Weather.com) all point to higher temperatures between 21°C and 23°C. The market may be ignoring the broader meteorological consensus by focusing too narrowly on the resolution source's specific forecast model.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest weather forecast for Wuhan Tianhe Airport (ZHHH) on March 22, 2026, from Wunderground, and analyze the Polymarket order book given the extremely low liquidity ($62 volume) to identify potential mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by wide bid-ask spreads.
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent?
Politics|$17.1k Vol|
time283 days 12 hrs

Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Over five years have passed since the 2020 election, meaning statutes of limitations for 'widespread...
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Rule Risk
The rules require a court to specifically rule that 'widespread fraud' occurred. This is a very high bar that goes beyond isolated cases of voter fraud. Courts typically adjudicate specific cases rather than issuing broad historical declarations. Thus, even if new evidence emerges, disputes may arise over whether the specific wording of a ruling meets the 'widespread' definition.
Exotics
This question involves the possibility of overturning or legally re-characterizing a historical event from years ago. While common in political discourse, it is considered a fringe event in the legal sphere. Most relevant lawsuits have long been dismissed or settled, making the procedural reopening of such a ruling highly rare and controversial.
Hedging
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
If a US court were to actually rule that widespread fraud occurred in the 2020 election, it would trigger a massive constitutional crisis and political turmoil, severely undermining trust in US institutions. Such a 'black swan' event would cause panic selling in equities (S&P 500) and a flight to safety assets (Gold). While highly unlikely, the potential impact would be structural and catastrophic.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the prediction market pricing (~10.5%) and the mainstream legal and political consensus (near 0%). The mainstream view is that legal challenges to the 2020 election are long settled, with no mechanism to trigger a judicial finding of 'widespread fraud' in 2026. The market premium reflects emotional tail-risk hedging or stranded capital rather than objective legal reality.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 2,050
YesNo
60.5¢
39.5¢
78.3¢
21.7¢
+17.8¢
0¢
↓ 2,000
YesNo
21¢
79¢
37.9¢
62.1¢
+16.9¢
0¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0160, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0380, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Distance to Yesterday Low Ratio, -0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday support test: distance of price relative to yesterday low Negative Factor 4: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0310, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 5: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0510, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 6: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.3310, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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