What price will Ethereum hit on May 14?
Crypto|$18.3k Vol|
time8 hrs 22 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on May 14? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
↑ 2,350(Yes)
+0.2¢
↓ 2,200(No)
+0.1¢
↑ 2,400(No)

What price will Ethereum hit on May 14? AI analysis: • +7.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Survivor 50 Winner
Culture|$1.6m Vol|
time5 days 4 hrs

Survivor 50 Winner

Top Undervalued
+1¢
Aubry Bracco(Yes)
+0.4¢
Tiffany Nicole Ervin(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a week remaining until the finale broadcast, Aubry Bracco's price steadily maintains ...
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AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest airing and filming updates for Survivor Season 50, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing if the current odds are overreacting to "spoiler" rumors from communities like Reddit (r/SpoiledSurvivor), and update the assessment of fair value for top contenders (e.g., Benjamin "Coach" Wade or Christian Hubicki) by comparing their prices against their "Edgic" (editing logic) viability.
Don Lemon charges dropped?
Politics|$13.7k Vol|
time16 days 4 hrs

Don Lemon charges dropped?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the May 31 deadline approaches even closer (only about 24 days left), the current market price re...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk here is 'Time Horizon Risk'. Federal criminal cases are notoriously slow; the window between an indictment (late Jan) and May 31 is extremely tight (approx. 4 months). Since Lemon has publicly vowed to 'fight the charges', a quick plea deal (which could trigger a 'Yes' if reduced to a misdemeanor) is less likely. If the case is simply 'pending' or 'ongoing' at the deadline, the market resolves to 'No'. Bettors relying on his innocence may lose simply due to procedural delays.
Exotics
This qualifies as a high-score exotic market due to its specific 'Future Scenario' narrative. It relies on a detailed hypothetical timeline (2026) involving the arrest of a celebrity journalist by a specific administration (Trump/Bondi) under controversial circumstances. It is a bet on a cultural/political proxy war rather than a standard financial or sports outcome.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid/ask depth given the $11,986 volume. Combine this with the specific legal charges from Don Lemon's Jan 29, 2026 arrest (felony vs. misdemeanor) to update the fair value assessment of charges being 'dropped or reduced' by May 31, and alert on slippage risks due to low liquidity.
Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Politics|$20.7k Vol|
time25 days 4 hrs

Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+1.3¢
Alexis Hill(Yes)
+0.7¢
Aaron Ford(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the Nevada Governor Democratic Primary (June 9) approaches, incumbent Attorney General Aaron Ford...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign updates for the Nevada Governor Democratic Primary, visit the Polymarket page to analyze current odds, liquidity depth, and user discussions, assess whether the pricing for Alexis Hill and Aaron Ford is fair, and identify potential arbitrage opportunities or risks.
Will any country leave NATO by...?
World|$1.1m Vol|
time230 days 16 hrs

Will any country leave NATO by...?

Top Undervalued
+6.2¢
December 31, 2026(No)
+1¢
June 30, 2026(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
A NATO member state formally withdrawing or submitting a notice of denunciation (invoking Article 13...
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Rule Risk
The option provides a deadline of June 30, 2026, but the detailed rules explicitly state that the member must formally withdraw or submit a notice by December 31, 2025. This severe temporal discrepancy between the title/option and the actual resolution criteria presents a massive trap for traders.
Hedging
Gold
S&P 500
LMT
A NATO member's exit (especially a major one) would act as a significant geopolitical black swan. This would drastically drive up safe-haven assets like Gold, trigger panic selling in the broader market (S&P 500), and likely cause structural shifts in global defense budgets, impacting defense stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT).
AI Analysis
What recent geopolitical news or statements from member states are driving the probability of a country leaving NATO by June 2026?
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Politics|$27.1k Vol|
time199 days 4 hrs

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+22.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While the 2026 midterms may historically favor the out-party (Democrats) in the House, requiring 235...
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Hedging
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
If the Democrats achieve a 'Blue Tsunami' victory in the 2026 midterms (controlling both chambers with significant margins), it would drastically alter the legislative outlook, significantly increasing the probability of tax hikes, stricter regulations, or large-scale spending bills. This is generally viewed as bearish or uncertainty-inducing for equities (specifically S&P 500) and could push US Treasury yields higher (due to inflation expectations or increased spending). It is a tradable macro event, not just noise.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence. The prediction market currently assigns a near 48.5% probability to this 'blue tsunami' (House >= 235 AND Senate >= 51), whereas mainstream political analysts and election experts generally agree that the 2026 Senate map (Class 2) makes it exceedingly difficult for Democrats to achieve a net gain of 4 seats. The market pricing appears overly optimistic and out of step with the fundamental structural headwinds.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling data for the 2026 Senate map and House generic ballot, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity for this long-cycle market, and assess if the current price accurately reflects the compounded difficulty of Democrats needing both 235 House seats (a very high threshold) and 51 Senate seats.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 2,350
YesNo
26¢
90¢
33.5¢
66.5¢
+7.5¢
0¢
↓ 2,200
YesNo
4¢
99.8¢
0¢
100¢
0¢
+0.2¢

Expand to view all 13 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0230, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0760, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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