All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ 0.50
YesNo
↑ 1.80
YesNo
↑ 2.00
YesNo
↑ 1.20
YesNo
↑ 0.60
YesNo
↑ 1.60
YesNo
↑ 0.30
YesNo
↑ 1.40
YesNo
↑ 0.24
YesNo
↑ 2.20
YesNo
↑ 0.40
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 16:04 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current price of Plasma (XPL) is approximately $0.10. The market pricing is extremely chaotic, violating monotonicity and presenting severe arbitrage opportunities. While forecasts like CoinCodex suggest a year-end 2026 target of around $0.26, supporting a ~50% probability for the 0.24 option, the market's pricing for 0.50 and above (51c) is completely detached from fundamentals and cumulative probability logic (probability of reaching 0.50 cannot exceed reaching 0.40). The fair value model forcibly corrects these errors, drastically downgrading valuations for options above 0.50 based on a rational bullish expectation of $0.26.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes ↑ 0.40 ($0.31) + Buy No ↑ 0.50 ($0.49).
Plan Description:
This is a textbook risk-free arbitrage. Logically, for the price to reach 0.50, it must first pass 0.40; therefore, the probability of 'Yes 0.40' must be greater than or equal to 'Yes 0.50'. Yet, the market price for 0.40 (31c) is significantly lower than for 0.50 (51c). By constructing this portfolio, the total cost is only 80c. Regardless of the final price, the minimum payout is 100c (a net profit of 20c), with zero possibility of loss.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 20¢
|Annualized yield: 31%
Exotics
This is a price prediction market for a specific niche cryptocurrency (Plasma XPL, an L1 launched in Sep 2025). While the format is standard financial prediction, the asset itself is an 'altcoin' with low general public awareness, categorizing it as a segmented speculative market within crypto.
Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 12, 2026, the price of the ↑ 2.00 option crashed from 19.5c to 9.5c, and the ↑ 1.80 option plummeted from 27c to 3.5c (rebounding to 7.7c later, but the trend collapsed). The reason is the market beginning to correct the previously extremely irrational 'inverted' pricing. Although the corrected prices (e.g., 2.00 still higher than 1.60) remain logically flawed, the high-strike bubbles are bursting.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream forecasts (e.g., Finst and CoinCodex) estimate Plasma's price in 2026 to be between $0.10 and $0.26. However, some options in the prediction market imply a 50% probability of breaking $0.50 or higher. This not only contradicts external expert opinions but also conflicts internally with the lower pricing of lower strike prices (like 0.40).
