April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 36.5c to 88.5c, while 30°C plummeted from 52c to 9.5c. The reason is that Shenzhen's local time has passed the afternoon peak temperature hours, and real-time observation data indicates the high temperature stayed at 29°C, making the chance of hitting 30°C extremely slim. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 35c to 51c, while the price of 28°C plummeted from 32.5c to 12.5c. The reason is that the latest weather forecasts closer to the resolution date further confirmed the warming trend, making 29°C the most certain expectation for the high temperature. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, multiple options experienced drastic fluctuations. The price of 29°C surged from 16.5c to 32c, and 28°C rose from 18c to 29c. Meanwhile, 25°C plummeted from 18.5c to 3.4c, and 31°C dropped from 25c to 9.5c. The reason is that weather forecasting models updated as the date approached, stabilizing the expected high temperature in the 28-29°C range and eliminating earlier anomalous predictions of extreme highs or lows.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 20°C surged from 30.5c to 42.5c, and 21°C briefly spiked to 34c before settling around 23.5c, while 18°C dropped from 15.5c to 8.5c. The reason is that meteorological models further raised temperature expectations as the date approached. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 17°C plummeted from 21c to around 5c, and 18°C dropped from 30.5c to 10.5c, while 19°C and 20°C rebounded significantly. This reflects the meteorological models revising the intensity of the cold front on April 7, raising the expected temperature compared to earlier forecasts.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '76°F or higher' surged from 44c to a peak of 69c before settling at 58c, while '74-75°F' stabilized in the 30c-35c range. This occurred as the resolution date arrived and new meteorological data indicated strong boundary-layer heating could push temperatures significantly above model expectations, leading capital to concentrate on the highest brackets. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '76°F or higher' surged from 38c to 56c, and '74-75°F' briefly touched 35c. This was due to updated meteorological models indicating that the impact of the warm air mass might be stronger than initially expected, further raising high-temperature expectations. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '76°F or higher' surged from 22.5c to 40c, and '74-75°F' rose from 15.5c to 29.5c. This is because, as the resolution date approaches, new meteorological models indicate a stronger warm air mass affecting the region, leading to upward revisions in temperature expectations. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '68-69°F' plummeted from 16.5c to 2.6c, and '70-71°F' dropped from 20c to 10c, as forecasts generally ruled out significant cooling or persistent cloud cover, prompting market capital to swiftly exit lower temperature ranges.

The National Weather Service (NWS) and other mainstream forecasting agencies predict the high temperature in Atlanta on April 7 to be around 74°F to 75°F. However, the prediction market assigns an over 57% probability that the temperature will hit '76°F or higher'. This divergence stems from traders believing that official models fail to fully account for the extra heating effect brought by abundant sunshine and specific wind directions, leading to a more aggressive market expectation than the official forecasts.

On April 6, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from 21.5c to 83c. This was driven by the release of precise near-term weather forecasts confirming that heavy cloud cover and precipitation on April 7 would firmly lock the maximum temperature around 19°C or lower, eliminating the uncertainty of warmer breakthroughs. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 20°C option briefly dropped from 8.5c to 3.8c before rebounding to 14.3c, reflecting short-term market friction and micro-adjustments ahead of the final forecasts. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, expectations for lower temperature brackets strengthened as short-term weather forecasts validated an increased probability of rain in Tokyo on April 7, keeping the expected high temperature heavily suppressed.