Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is relatively niche in the grand scheme but common within certain prediction market communities. Ordinary people check the weather, but rarely place bets on precise temperature ranges.

April 10 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 22c to 46c, and the 22°C option rose from 15.5c to 31.5c, while the 24°C option dropped from 29.5c to 13c. This is due to meteorological models converging as the settlement date approaches, ruling out higher temperatures and focusing market consensus purely on the 22-23°C range. April 10, 2026, the price of the 25°C option plummeted from 19c to 5.5c. This was caused by updated weekend weather models revising the April 13 high-temperature forecast downwards, heavily discounting the probability of extreme heat.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a typical weather prediction market. While not uncommon in specialized betting circles, it remains a relatively niche topic that the general public and non-locals would not ordinarily think about.

From April 9, 2026 to April 10, 2026, the price of '11°C or higher' surged from 59.5c to 98c, while '10°C' plummeted from 30c to 1.4c, and '9°C' dropped from 16.5c to 0.6c. This was caused by the convergence of short-term weather models as the date approached, definitively ruling out a late spring cold snap and confirming the high will easily exceed 11°C.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of '23°C or higher' rebounded and climbed from 35c to 47.5c, as the latest short-term forecasts close to expiry slightly revised the peak temperature expectations upwards. April 10, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of '21°C' fluctuated and dropped from 27c to 14c, as market confidence shifted towards higher temperature brackets (22°C and above), reducing the likelihood of this conservative estimate. April 10, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '23°C or higher' plunged from 56.5c to 27c (before recovering), as updated meteorological models temporarily ruled out extreme heat scenarios, shifting the consensus slightly lower. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '22°C' climbed from 18.5c to 31.5c, because the downward revision in heat expectations made 22°C one of the most probable peak targets. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '21°C' steadily rose from 16.5c to 27c, also driven by the correction of the upper temperature bound and increasing short-term forecast certainty.

Although weather forecasting is part of daily life, placing precise bets on the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is relatively niche among the general public, making it a moderately novel prediction market topic.

April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price for '19°C' surged from 54.5c to 95.0c, as real-time temperature data in the afternoon of April 13 local time confirmed the high reaching 19°C, creating a strong market consensus. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the Yes price for '20°C' plummeted from 51.0c to 4.5c, as real-time data made the possibility of reaching 20°C highly unlikely. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for '19°C' surged from 22.5c to 51.5c, as weather forecasts further confirmed the temperature center around 19°C as the date approached. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for '18°C' plummeted from 37.0c to 0.05c, because real-time weather data updates and the passage of time completely ruled out highs below 19°C. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for '20°C' rose from 21.5c to 40.5c, indicating that the market still retains some hedge against the temperature slightly exceeding expectations to reach 20°C. April 9, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes prices for '21°C' and '22°C or higher' plummeted from 23.0c and 30.5c to 8.8c and 0.9c respectively, because extreme high-temperature forecasts were completely ruled out. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for '20°C' dropped from 30.5c to 11.0c and then fluctuated wildly, reflecting model volatility between the 18°C-20°C range.

Quite exotic. While checking weather forecasts is a daily routine, betting on the exact daily high temperature down to the specific degree in a specific Indian city (Lucknow) is a very niche and novelty topic for general prediction markets.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price for '36°C' rose from 43.5c to 46c, peaking at 47.5c, as weather forecasts further confirmed 36°C as the most likely high temperature. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price for '37°C' rose from 24.5c to 35c, as forecasts showed slight warming or margin of error, making 37°C a strong alternative. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price for '34°C or below' experienced high volatility, dropping from 27.5c to 9.5c before rebounding to 17.5c, as meteorological models briefly fluctuated regarding the warming trend. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of '38°C' steadily dropped from a peak of 21.5c to 6c, as forecasts stabilized around the 36°C-37°C range, leading the market to price out the probability of extreme heat.