What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12)
Trump|$28.3k Vol|
time2 days 14 hrs

What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12) - AI Found +46.5¢ Mispricing

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Last updated: 04.08 16:04
Top Undervalued
+46.5¢
Ballroom(Yes)
+32¢
Hungary(Yes)
+32¢
Pam / Bondi(Yes)

What will Trump post this week? (April 6 - April 12) AI analysis: • +46.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices reflect the probability of specific phrases being posted by Trump on Truth Soc...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Israel military action against Beirut on...?
Geopolitics|$202.0k Vol|
time20 days 14 hrs

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Top Undervalued
+63.1¢
April 7(Yes)
+26.4¢
April 9(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is April 3, 2026. The price for 'April 2' has crashed to 8c because the date has already passe...
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Rule Risk
The definition of 'Greater Beirut' relies on a specific academic map, which may diverge from colloquial media descriptions (e.g., generic 'southern suburbs'), creating significant potential for resolution disputes. Furthermore, the explicit exclusion of 'intercepted debris' and 'naval/artillery/ground ops' can be difficult to distinguish immediately in chaotic wartime reporting, requiring very high-precision verification.
Hedging
Crude Oil
A strike on the capital, Beirut (as opposed to routine border skirmishes), would be interpreted as a significant escalation in regional conflict. Such escalation typically triggers fears of Middle East crude oil supply disruption, directly driving up oil prices. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tension boosts the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset and may induce short-term risk-off sentiment in equity markets like the S&P 500.
Movers
April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the 'Yes' price for April 2 crashed from 63.5c to 8c, because the calendar date passed in Israel Standard Time without a qualifying strike. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the 'Yes' price for April 3 surged from 69.5c to 96.3c, as a qualifying strike in Greater Beirut likely occurred or became imminent on this date. March 24, 2026: Market prices show a slight premium for 'Yes' on April 1-3 compared to later dates (51c vs 45.5c), reflecting expectations of immediate conflict intensity.
AI Analysis
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
Politics|$10.2k Vol|
time265 days 14 hrs

Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The probability of the Dutch House of Representatives being dissolved remains low. Although the pric...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant rule trap stemming from the technical definition of 'dissolution' in Dutch constitutional law. While a Royal Decree might announce new elections in 2026, Article 64 states that dissolution formally takes effect 'on the day on which the newly elected House meets.' If the government collapses in late 2026 triggering early 2027 elections, the legal dissolution date would fall in 2027, resolving the market to 'No' despite the political collapse. Furthermore, the timeline is tight: the House sitting on Jan 27, 2026, is fresh from the late 2025 elections (Jetten I cabinet forming). A 'Yes' outcome requires this brand-new government to collapse and complete the election cycle again within the same calendar year.
AI Analysis
Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?
Crypto|$24.7k Vol|
time266 days 19 hrs

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+41.5¢
Jesse Pollak(Yes)
+41¢
Brian Armstrong(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The valuation logic anchors on the commercial reality of Coinbase's $25M acquisition of UpOnly. This...
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Exotics
UpOnly is a niche podcast specific to crypto culture. While famous within the industry, it is obscure to the general public. Predicting podcast guests falls under 'niche cultural prediction', sitting between standard election/financial markets and completely absurd novelty bets.
Movers
Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026: ThreadGuy's price surged from 26.5c to 46c, Gainzy's from 34c to 49.5c, and Jeff Yan's from 32c to 47.5c. This was driven by market expectations that the initial guest lineup will heavily favor highly active Crypto Twitter personalities and top ecosystem founders, sparking capital rotation into native crypto KOLs. Mar 09, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026: Jesse Pollak's price recovered from 38c to 46c, likely reflecting a market correction reaffirming the fundamental logic that the Base Lead must appear to support Coinbase's marketing strategy. Feb 23, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026: Guy Young's price surged from 20.5c to 50c, likely a mean-reversion recovery following a flash crash in the prior session. Feb 22, 2026 - Feb 24, 2026: Brian Armstrong's price spiked from 44c to 63c before correcting to 52.5c, reflecting high volatility likely driven by rumors regarding the debut episode's recording schedule.
Divergence
The prediction market currently assigns an almost 30% implied probability to SBF appearing on the podcast, which wildly diverges from mainstream consensus and basic reality. SBF is serving a 25-year sentence in federal prison, and the mainstream view assumes he is completely isolated from public media engagements until well past 2027. This pricing anomaly is likely due to a lack of 'No' side liquidity or degens betting on extreme, unforeseen bail/appeal technicalities, which are vastly overpriced.
AI Analysis
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Politics|$75.5k Vol|
time265 days 14 hrs

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current Yes price of around 44.5c remains significantly overvalued. 1. **Election Year Gridlock*...
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Hedging
PLTR
Nasdaq 100
NVDA
GOOGL
MSFT
If such a bill passes, it would have a direct and significant impact on the AI supply chain. Restrictions on training data or model parameters could severely dent demand expectations for Nvidia's (NVDA) GPUs, while increasing compliance costs for major model developers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL), thereby triggering volatility in the Nasdaq 100. Companies like Palantir (PLTR) involved in government and security sectors could also be positively or negatively affected by specific clauses like human-in-the-loop requirements.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the market pricing (~44.5% for Yes) and the mainstream consensus of Washington legislative experts. Mainstream political analysts and tech policy think tanks widely agree that the U.S. Congress will not pass a comprehensive AI safety bill containing hard restrictions like 'training parameter limits' or 'model release bans' before the 2026 midterm elections. The market's high pricing is likely due to retail traders mistakenly equating sporadic hearing discussions or drafted proposals with actual legislative progress.
AI Analysis
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?
Sports|$57.5k Vol|
time51 days 14 hrs

Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price is stable around 92c, which aligns closely with the fair value. Entering la...
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AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Ballroom
YesNo
21.5¢
78.5¢
68¢
32¢
+46.5¢
Hungary
YesNo
53¢
47¢
85¢
15¢
+32¢

Expand to view all 17 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The rules establish highly strict and complex conditions regarding capitalization, plurals, misspellings, quotes/reposts, and text in images. If Trump uses slightly modified words or includes the term in a GIF, it won't count, creating potential traps and edge-case disputes.
Exotics
Predicting the specific vocabulary a political figure will use within a week is very niche and entertainment-oriented. While it fits his tweeting habits, the premise itself is quite a novelty.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 'Epic Fury' surged from 31c to 99.95c, indicating it is highly likely Trump has posted this term or a related major breaking event occurred. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 'Peter / Magyar' surged from 17c to 50c, and 'Invasion' fluctuated, rising from 30c to 73.5c before settling at 50.5c, showing significant volatility in expectations for these topics to be mentioned. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 'Artemis / Orion' surged from 49.5c to 81.5c, 'NATO' surged from 51c to 84c before settling at 77.5c, and 'Hungary' rose from 50.5c to 76c. This was driven by recent space exploration news and geopolitical events catching Trump's strong attention. Concurrently, options like 'Keir / Starmer', 'Paper Tiger', and 'Epic Fury' experienced sharp swings of over 20c, reflecting rapid shifts in market expectations regarding his posting intentions on these specific topics. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Trump' surged from 74.5c to 99.5c, 'Hell' surged from 52c to 80.5c, 'NATO' surged from 51c to 76.5c, 'Hungary' surged from 50.5c to 72.5c, 'Epic Fury' rose from 53c to 65.5c, 'JD / Vance' rose from 50c to 68c, and 'Artemis / Orion' rose from 49.5c to 64.5c. This is likely due to Trump frequently mentioning these topics during weekend rallies or news cycles, or related geopolitical events (such as NATO, Hungary) occurring, causing a sharp increase in market expectations for these terms to be posted in the coming week.

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