According to the latest weather forecasts (NWS, Wunderground, Google Weather), temperatures at NYC L...

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of '59°F or below' spiked from 28.5c to 65c before retracing to 32c, driven by volatility in weather models regarding the exact timing of the cold front. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, mid-range options like '64-65°F' and '66-67°F' also experienced >10c swings, reflecting market uncertainty over whether April 2 will capture the pre-frontal warmth or post-frontal chill.

The market assigns only a 32% probability to '59°F or below', spreading a large chunk of implied probability across the 60°F-71°F ranges. However, recent forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) and Wunderground explicitly call for highs between 49°F and 59°F on April 2. The market pricing is significantly lagging behind the latest meteorological updates, creating a sharp divergence.

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport o...

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of 12°C fell from 32.5c to 21.5c, and 15°C plummeted from 24c to 13c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts indicating that cloud cover and cool air masses on April 1 will likely constrain the temperature, prompting traders to shift their expectations towards the 13°C and 14°C ranges.

The core logic is based on 'structural data impairment' and 'time decay'. 1. With less than 1 day un...

This is a highly niche market focused on influence metrics within the specific subculture of 'Crypto Twitter'. To outsiders, 'Mindshare' and the specific KOL names mean nothing. It gamifies the intangible asset of social media clout, making it a classic crypto-native exotic market.

Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, Ansem's price plummeted from 19.2c to 3.15c, as the final time value was completely squeezed out and the speculative bubble burst ahead of the deadline. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, Ansem's price plummeted from 19.2c to 4.6c, as the final time value was completely squeezed out and the speculative bubble burst ahead of the deadline. Mar 29, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026, CBB's price rose from 16.2c to 24.5c, driven by extreme last-minute '0DTE' speculative gambling. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, CBB's price rebounded from 16c to 24c, driven by short-term speculative trading on whether he can trigger last-minute social engagement. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, Arthur_0x's price fluctuated at high levels and slightly rose to 26c, reflecting '0DTE' style speculation as the deadline approaches. Mar 28, 2026 - Mar 29, 2026, Sisyphus's price spiked from 8.5c to 16.7c, likely due to concentrated buying from specific groups. Mar 26, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, Ansem's price surged from 2c to 18.8c, driven by extreme speculative gambling on a potential weekend narrative, akin to buying 0DTE options. Mar 26, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, Arthur_0x's price spiked from 7c to 23.5c, reflecting short-term whale buying or intense speculative hype. Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, mert's price crashed from 34.5c down to 7.5c before a slight bounce to 9.5c, as the previous overvaluation bubble rapidly burst due to time decay. Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, Proph3t's price continuously dropped from 33.5c to 4.5c, indicating complete market capitulation on his chances of breaking the ATH. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, CBB's price dropped from 22c to 7.4c before rebounding to 15.7c, driven by short-term speculative trading battling against time decay. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, mert's price dropped from 34.5c to 17c and recovered to 23c, reflecting volatile short-term trading around Solana ecosystem narratives. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, threadguy's price crashed from 26c to 6c as the market fully capitulated on his chances given the impending deadline and lack of viral engagement. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, Proph3t's price experienced high volatility, dropping from 47c to 25.5c before rebounding to 34c, driven by short-term speculation on localized events battling against aggressive time decay. Mar 19, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, Ansem's price crashed from 18c to 3.1c as the market capitulated on any remaining hope for a last-minute miracle, reflecting his faded relevance as a 'last cycle' protagonist.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, there is some divergence regarding the high temperature in Ch...

While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific Chinese city (Chengdu) remains a niche and novelty concept in retail prediction markets. Ordinary people generally do not forecast such highly specific daily metrics.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 17c to 33.5c, as weather models reached a stronger consensus on warmer temperatures as the date approached. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 20°C option plummeted from 24.5c to 7c, because colder forecasts were gradually discarded by the market. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 21°C option fell from 26.5c to 15.5c, due to capital shifting toward higher temperature options like 22°C and 23°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 19°C option crashed from 17c to 2.5c, as the probability of such low temperatures was largely ruled out in the latest short-term forecasts.

As April 2 approaches, weather forecast models are stabilizing. Current market pricing is heavily co...

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common yet somewhat novelty topic in prediction markets. While the public checks the weather daily, betting on the precise whole degree for a specific date is a relatively niche and entertainment-driven activity.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 13°C option climbed from 30c to 43.5c before dipping slightly, while the 14°C option spiked from 12c to 29c on the 29th before quickly falling back. Options for 12°C and 11°C also saw intraday fluctuations exceeding 10c. These frequent movements are primarily driven by continuous updates and minor adjustments in major meteorological models (such as ECMWF and GFS) narrowing the expected high temperature down to the 12-14°C range as the target date approaches.