Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.

High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<40' option increased from 46c to 61.5c, while the '40-64' option decreased from 45.5c to 29c. This is because, approaching the statistical window, the market observed a lower recent posting frequency from Musk, thus adjusting the probability expectations towards lower volume brackets.

May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, Moldova's price surged from 26.5c to 62c, likely due to a standout performance in semi-finals or dress rehearsals that far exceeded expectations, attracting a rapid influx of capital. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026, Sweden's price crashed from 66c down to around 47c, likely due to underwhelming feedback from dress rehearsals, prompting continuous capital outflows from this option. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, Greece's price surged from 77.5c to 92c before falling back to 89c, likely driven by outstanding live rehearsal performances as the semi-finals approached, rapidly boosting market confidence in a top-10 finish, followed by slight profit-taking. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, Sweden's price surged from 55c to 66c, driven by highly positive market reactions to newly leaked rehearsal footage, resulting in rapid capital inflows. May 4, 2026 - May 8, 2026, Romania's price surged from 55c to 67.5c, likely due to better-than-expected rehearsal feedback as the semi-finals approached, attracting a wave of capital before slightly pulling back. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, Ukraine's price rebounded from 56.5c to 70.5c, likely due to improved rehearsal feedback or a correction in market sentiment. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Ukraine's price crashed from 68.5c to 56.5c, likely due to recent rehearsal or pre-party performances failing to meet expectations, leading to a significant outflow of funds. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, Romania's price surged from 43c to 56.5c, likely due to continuous excellent performances in pre-parties or national selections, attracting rapid capital inflows. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, Romania's price surged from 22.5c to 41.5c, likely due to excellent performances in pre-parties or national selections, attracting significant early money. March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, prices for almost all top contenders (Finland, Greece, France, Australia) crashed simultaneously, dropping between 10c and 16c. This indicates a systemic market correction regarding the 'sum of probabilities' overflow, or a collective negative reaction to recent live performances/rehearsal leaks.

May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: Greece's price rebounded strongly from 37c to 63c (before settling at 59.5c) as capital flowed back into the main favorites approaching the finals, reigniting market expectations for its stage performance. May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026: Greece's price dropped from 49c to 37c as market capital redistributed among other top contenders approaching the finals, triggering profit-taking amid waning bullish momentum. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026: Finland's Yes price surged from 69.5c to 82.5c as flawless final rehearsals cemented its position as the undisputed favorite. May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026: Italy's Yes price surged from 8.5c to 17.5c (before retracing), likely due to strong positive reception from its stage rehearsals. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Greece's price surged from 42.5c to 55.5c, a 13c jump, likely due to extremely positive market expectations regarding its upcoming stage rehearsals or promotional momentum attracting significant capital. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026: Romania's Yes price surged from 15.5c to 27.5c, a 12c jump, likely driven by short-term speculative capital inflows as rehearsals or promotional events approach. March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026: While prediction market prices remained stagnant due to illiquidity, external betting odds shifted significantly. Finland cemented its lead with >36% win probability; France climbed to second favorite; and Denmark surged from 20th to the top 6.

The RBNZ interest rate decision directly impacts the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). If the decision is unexpected (e.g., a surprise hike or cut), currency pairs like NZD/USD and AUD/NZD will see significant volatility. While RBNZ is a major central bank, its impact on global assets (like US Treasuries or S&P 500) is usually minor and localized to regional forex markets unless synchronized with broader global trends.

There are two main risks: 1. **Date Trap**: The biggest S-Tier event, 'IEM Cologne Major 2026', starts in June but concludes on June 21, making it **ineligible** under the 'concludes by June 1' rule. Bettors might mistakenly assume qualifying for the Major counts. 2. **S-Tier Definition**: Liquipedia tiers are dynamic; events like 'BLAST Open' could be downgraded to A-Tier prior to start if top teams withdraw, nullifying a potential qualification.

Moderately exotic esports derivative. While CS2 match predictions are common, combining a specific team's comeback story (100 Thieves), a hard time cutoff (June 1), and reliance on Liquipedia tier definitions makes this more niche and complex than standard match winner markets.