Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Culture|$138.9k Vol|
time239 days 15 hrs

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? - AI Found +39¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 19:02
Top Undervalued
+39¢
Jack Harlow(Yes)
+35.5¢
Lil Baby(Yes)
+32.5¢
Zach Bryan(Yes)

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? AI analysis: • +39¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current market pricing and recent volatility, Mariah Carey (89c) remains heavily favored as...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Science|$7.7m Vol|
time239 days 15 hrs

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
↑7.5k(Yes)
+0.5¢
↑12.5k(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market pricing continues to reflect expectations of a slowing growth rate in measles cases. ...
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Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option dropped significantly from 68.5c to 54.5c, then slightly recovered to 61.5c. This reflects market adjustments to updated CDC data, confirming a slowdown in new cases while maintaining some uncertainty. Apr 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option dropped significantly from 69c to 54.5c. This was likely due to the release of the latest CDC data showing a further slowdown in the growth rate of new cases, leading the market to sharply downgrade expectations of exceeding 3,000 cases this year. Apr 21, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, the price of the ↑4k option plummeted from 44.5c to 30.5c. This was due to updated CDC data confirming a slowdown in new cases, heavily reducing market expectations for a moderate-scale outbreak (over 4,000 cases). Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, the price of the ↑4k option dropped significantly from 46.5c to 30.5c. This was due to the latest CDC weekly report showing only 34 new cases, the lowest weekly increase of the year, which confirmed a significant slowdown in the spring outbreak and led the market to sharply downgrade expectations of reaching 4,000 cases. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 21, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option surged from 59c to 69.5c. This was likely due to an unexpected localized rebound or data revision in late spring following new CDC data releases, prompting the market to reassess the probability of exceeding 3,000 cases this year. Apr 17, 2026 - Apr 20, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option plummeted from 83c to 59c, and the ↑4k option dropped from 59.5c to 46.5c. This was caused by a significant slowdown in new cases as the spring peak passed, leading the market to sharply downgrade expectations for a moderate-scale outbreak. Apr 15, 2026 - Apr 18, 2026, as expectations of a slowing growth rate strengthened, the ↑4k option slowly declined from 58.5c to 50c, and the ↑5k option dropped from 40c to 32.5c, though neither triggered a >10c sharp move. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 13, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option rebounded from 71.5c to 83c, while the ↑10k option fell from 15.5c to 10c. This indicates the market adjusted its extreme outbreak expectations, shifting probability weights heavily toward a moderate outbreak of 3,000 to 5,000 cases. Apr 10, 2026 - Apr 11, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option surged from 71.5c to 84c. This was likely due to the market reassessing the case growth rate from the latest CDC reports, or signs of new cluster outbreaks in local areas during spring, leading to a rapid resurgence in outbreak concerns. Apr 9, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option dropped significantly from 87c to 71.5c. This occurred because the market, after digesting the latest CDC data, concluded that the peak of the spring outbreak had passed, leading to a major downward revision of pessimistic annual forecasts. Mar 28, 2026 - Apr 9, 2026, prices for all options remained highly stable with maximum fluctuations under 6c. The market entered a stable wait-and-see period after the end of Q1, awaiting guidance from new spring case data. Mar 24, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, all options fluctuated within 5c. The market continued its consolidation phase as traders awaited more CDC data to confirm if the outbreak trend continues. Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the ↑5k option surged from 38.5c to 51.5c. Reason: The market reacted violently to new CDC data (125 weekly cases), fueling panic bets on linear growth and challenging the expectation of a seasonal summer decline.
AI Analysis
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Trump|$3.1m Vol|
time25 days 15 hrs

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.1¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
6¢
Arbitrage
93.4%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is around 93.85 cents. Given the extremely low probability of a comprehen...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a month remaining until the deadline (May 31, 2026), there are no official signs or s...
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Hedging
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
A ceasefire would massively reduce global geopolitical risk premiums. Crude Oil would likely face a significant correction as supply fears ease (high impact); safe-haven assets like Gold would lose appeal. Concurrently, the reduction in macro uncertainty would act as a moderately strong bullish catalyst for broad equity indices like the S&P 500.
AI Analysis
Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance|$16.8k Vol|
time15 hrs 9 mins

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
3.6B(No)
+1.5¢
3.4B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than two days until the earnings release, market pricing is highly efficient and reflects ...
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Hedging
UBER
Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.
Movers
2026-05-03 to 2026-05-04, the price of the 3.6B option surged from 67c to 84c. As the earnings date is extremely imminent, the market likely absorbed the latest investment bank preview reports or alternative data, vastly increasing confidence in exceeding 3.6 billion trips. 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-02, the price of the 3.6B option climbed from 58c to 71.5c, indicating that as the earnings date approaches, market participants have regained further confidence in hitting 3.6 billion trips. 2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the price of the 3.6B option recovered from 54c to 61c, likely because market participants reassessed the seasonal dip or received new unofficial data clues, restoring some probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the YES price for the 3.6B option plunged from 87.5c to 51.5c. This was likely due to market participants revising their Q1 seasonal dip estimates downwards as the earnings release approaches, significantly reducing the perceived probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the 4.4B and 4.6B options experienced anomalous price spikes (to 5.45c and 6.0c respectively), likely caused by poorly executed trades by inexperienced market participants in a low-liquidity environment.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Jack Harlow
YesNo
10¢
90¢
49¢
51¢
+39¢
Lil Baby
YesNo
9.5¢
90.5¢
45¢
55¢
+35.5¢

Expand to view all 25 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Ariana Grande's price surged from 50c to 74.5c. Reasoning: She likely released a new remix or music video, causing a massive spike in streaming and reviving hopes for a #1. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, The Weeknd rose from 39c to 50c, Jack Harlow jumped from 34c to 49c, Travis Scott surged from 26.5c to 49c, and Playboi Carti skyrocketed from 16.5c to 48.5c. Reasoning: Reliable market rumors of impending major singles or album releases from these artists drastically improved their #1 prospects. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, Olivia Rodrigo's price skyrocketed from 51.5c to 92c. Reasoning: Her latest release showed absolute dominance in streaming metrics, heavily positioning her to claim the #1 spot on next week's Billboard Hot 100. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, Lil Baby's price surged from 10c to 47.5c, Tyler, The Creator jumped from 22c to 47c, and Post Malone experienced high volatility (dropping to 30.5c before rallying to 64c). Reasoning: These artists likely released highly anticipated tracks or major collaborations, resulting in streaming data that significantly outperformed expectations. April 20, 2026 - April 23, 2026, Ariana Grande's price dropped from 68.5c to 50c. Reasoning: Her latest single likely failed to maintain its momentum against stronger new releases, significantly lowering its chances of hitting #1. April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Rihanna's price surged from 15.2c to 40.85c. Reasoning: Strong market rumors or confirmed news of her highly anticipated comeback single or album, significantly boosting her #1 prospects. April 12, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Tyler, The Creator's price surged from 23.5c to 39.5c. Reasoning: His new release likely showed extremely strong streaming metrics, giving it a solid chance to compete for the top spot. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, Ariana Grande's price dropped from 82.5c to 71c. Reasoning: A recent release may have faced stronger-than-expected competition, failing to secure a #1 debut as initially priced. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Luke Combs's price steadily climbed from 34.5c to 43.5c, likely due to a new release or announcement of an upcoming single generating positive market expectations. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, SZA's price dropped from 51c to 39c, potentially because a recent release underperformed on the charts or a planned release was delayed. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Ariana Grande's price rebounded from 71c to 83c, indicating that her new single's momentum remains strong enough to challenge for the #1 spot after a brief dip. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Ariana Grande's price surged from 53c to 81c. Reasoning: She highly likely released a dominant new single with explosive streaming metrics, leading the market to quickly price her as a lock for an upcoming #1 debut. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, SZA and Sabrina Carpenter experienced high volatility, with SZA dropping from 47c to 39.5c, rebounding to 50.5c, and falling again. Reasoning: Likely due to delayed release schedules or losing streaming momentum against heavyweight competitors like Ariana. March 23, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Ariana Grande's price surged from 47c to 63c before settling at 60c. Reasoning: She likely released a highly anticipated new single or high-profile remix with explosive streaming numbers. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Post Malone's price crashed from 52.5c to 38c. Reasoning: His recent single likely suffered a steep drop in streaming retention. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, SZA's price rose from 39.5c to 50.5c. Reasoning: Teasers or a new release generated significant hype. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Olivia Rodrigo skyrocketed from 50c to 86c, and A$AP Rocky surged from 24.5c to 47c. Reasoning: Rodrigo likely released a dominant surprise single; Rocky's surge implies a viral moment or confirmed feature. March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Ariana Grande dropped from 51c to 43.5c, and Jack Harlow fell to 21.5c. Reasoning: Rodrigo's return sucked the oxygen out of the room. March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Post Malone climbed steadily from 38c to 57.5c, indicating his latest release was gaining significant traction.

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