All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑7.5k
YesNo
↑10k
YesNo
↑12.5k
YesNo
↑5k
YesNo
↑4k
YesNo
↑3k
YesNo
↑2k
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:12 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is undergoing a significant fundamental correction. While the Q1 outbreak (~1400 cases) set a high baseline, the collapse in ↑5k pricing (dropping 19c in three days) confirms the expectation of 'seasonal deceleration.' Measles transmission typically slows in late spring/summer, making linear extrapolation of Q1 data inappropriate. We have revised the fair value for ↑4k down to 55c (near coin-flip odds), viewing the 3500-4500 range as the most likely annual outcome. Additionally, a logical inversion has appeared (price of ↑12.5k at 14c is higher than ↑10k at 13.95c), further indicating that tail-end options are mispriced and illiquid; they should be valued significantly lower.
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Movers
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the price of the ↑5k option plummeted from 52.5c to 33.5c (-19c), while ↑10k dropped from 21c to 14c. The reason is the strengthening consensus that the 'spring peak has passed,' with decelerating new case data significantly reducing the probability of exceeding 5,000 annual cases, shifting market sentiment from panic to rational regression.
Mar 6, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026, the price of the ↑3k option surged from 79c to 92.5c (+13.5c) as early March data confirmed rapid spread, swiftly shifting the expectation of breaching 3,000 cases from 'probable' to 'highly likely'.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Although the market has begun to correct, the ↑4k option is still trading at 66.5c, implying that reaching 4,000+ cases is the likely scenario. However, historical epidemiological data shows that U.S. measles outbreaks are highly seasonal and typically slow down drastically in the summer. Current market pricing relies on linear extrapolation of Q1 data rather than cyclical expert models, leading to an overvaluation of the middle-range options (4k-5k).
