The primary risk lies in the reliance on a custom third-party tracker (xtracker), especially regarding its handling of deleted posts (which must survive ~5 mins to be counted) and replies on the main feed. This could lead to discrepancies with native X data.

Forecasting the exact social media posting volume of a head of state over a random week is a highly gamified novelty market that rarely crosses the mind of the general public.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the Yes price for the 40-59 bracket surged from 14c to 55c due to a slowdown in posting frequency, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 26.5c to 3.5c as insufficient remaining time drastically reduced the likelihood of reaching 80 posts. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the Yes price for the 40-59 bracket plummeted from 30.5c to 6.5c, and the 80-99 bracket dropped from 35.5c to 15c, while the 60-79 bracket rose from 51c to 65c, as the posting frequency stabilized over time, causing the market to lock its expectations on the 60-79 range. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for the 80-99 bracket rebounded from 7.5c to 28c, as the posting frequency increased during this period, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of hitting this range. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes prices for the 140-159 and 100-119 brackets plummeted from 49.5c and 48.65c down to 4c and 8.55c respectively, as actual posting data from the first two days of the tracking period eliminated the possibility of ultra-high frequency. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the Yes price for 40-59 violently fluctuated from 44.5c down to 8c before bouncing to 22c, due to severe market disagreement and liquidity gaps when assessing the initial run rate. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price for the 100-119 bracket plummeted from 39.5c to 10.2c, while the 160-179 bracket surged from 11.75c to 21.95c, due to extreme illiquidity and random large trades causing wild price swings. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the Yes price for 80-99 dropped from 44c to 38c, and later to 31c, as early speculative money exited the position.

Medium risk. Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has nuanced rules regarding replies and deleted posts (e.g., the 5-minute rule for tracker capture). Tracker API failures or desyncs with actual data are common points of dispute.

Quite exotic. Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a specific individual in a given week is a novelty/entertainment market typical of prediction platforms, rather than a mainstream macro or political event.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option rebounded from 39.5c to 50.5c, as a slight slowdown in the posting rate renewed the probability of finishing at or below 119. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option surged from 22c to 55.5c, as the sustained high posting frequency made it the most likely final range. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 69c to 34c, as the rapid increase in total posts greatly raised the probability of exceeding the 119 upper limit. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option surged from 6c to 16.95c (then plummeted to 1.15c), due to brief fluctuations in the posting rate before a rapid return to high frequency, shattering the possibility of a low total. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 20.5c to 52.5c, as the first day's actual posting data showed a highly stable run rate with a very high probability of falling into this range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option surged from 6.5c to 32.5c, as the sustained high posting frequency made this range another highly likely outcome. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option plummeted from 52c to 3.25c, as the posting rate was much higher than expected, drastically shrinking the probability of falling into this lower range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 24c to 5.5c (then slightly rebounded to 10.5c), as the posting frequency stabilized and failed to maintain the extremely high total expectation implied in the initial hours. April 8, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 200+ option plummeted from 19.9c to 0.25c, as the daily posting average required to reach this extreme high became highly unrealistic over time.

There is moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has detailed rules about what counts (reposts, quotes, main feed replies). Additionally, deleted posts may count if they survive for around 5 minutes, which could cause the final figure to deviate from a direct manual count on X.

This is quite a novelty market. Before seeing this prompt, ordinary people would rarely seriously forecast or track the exact number of tweets from the White House over a specific week. It is a typical novelty bet based on social media activity metrics.

April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 41.5c to a peak of 73c before dropping to 59c, while the '160-179' option fell from 53.5c to 38c. This was due to the actual posting volume becoming clearer as the weekend passed, causing the market to make final adjustments between the 140-159 and 160-179 brackets. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option dropped from 50.5c to 43c, while '160-179' surged from 14.5c to 53.5c, as the posting frequency accelerated significantly before the weekend, pushing overall market expectations higher into the 160-179 bracket. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the '120-139' option surged from 22.5c to 43.25c before pulling back to 28.15c, while the '140-159' option spiked from 31.5c to 50.5c. This was caused by further actual posting data showing a continued slowdown in posting pace, concentrating market expectations in lower brackets, followed by a slight correction. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 15c to 31.5c, and the '120-139' option spiked from 2.6c to 22.5c. Concurrently, the '180-199' option plummeted from 34.5c to 20.5c, and '200+' dropped from 32.75c to 7.2c. This was caused by the release of actual posting data from the first few days of the period, which showed a much slower pace than anticipated, prompting capital to quickly rotate from extreme high-frequency brackets into the 120-159 median ranges. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option surged from 16.5c to 34.5c, while the '200+' option jumped from 4.5c to 32.75c. This was driven by traders recalibrating expectations for higher posting frequencies as the measurement period approached. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option plummeted from 42c to 13.5c as market sentiment and liquidity shifted toward higher post-volume brackets.

Resolution relies heavily on a specific tracker provided by Polymarket and has highly specific definitions regarding retweets, quotes, replies, and quickly deleted posts. These customized rules and the technical limits of the tracker can easily lead to discrepancies between manual counts and the official result.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a prominent crypto figure within a specific week is a trivial, highly entertaining niche topic. Outside of hardcore prediction market participants, almost no one would naturally ponder such an idiosyncratic question.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the YES price of the 60-79 option surged from 54.6c to 87.3c, because as the tracking period nears its end, the actual post count has steadily fallen squarely into this range, leading to a highly concentrated market consensus. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The YES price of the 40-59 option plummeted from a peak of 73c to 2c, while the 60-79 option surged from 25c to 69c. This occurred because CZ's actual posting volume rapidly approached or surpassed 59 in the latter half of the period, shifting market expectations entirely to the 60-79 bracket. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The YES price of the 80-99 option surged from ~2c to 32c. This was driven by CZ's sustained high posting volume during the mid-period, rapidly pushing the actual tracker count past the safety thresholds of lower brackets and forcing the market to drastically upward-revise the final count expectations. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The YES price of the 40-59 option surged from 5.45c to 56c, the 60-79 option surged from 0.6c to 33c, and the 20-39 option plummeted from 77c to 30c. The reason is that actual tracker data indicated a significantly higher posting frequency than previously expected, prompting the market to rapidly adjust its total estimate. April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The YES price of the 20-39 option surged from 35.5c to 63.5c, as the market observed steady posting frequency and capital concentrated into the most probable range. April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The YES price of the 40-59 option plummeted from 26c to 5.7c, and the 60-79 option fell from 25.5c to 10.3c. As time progressed, the likelihood of high-frequency posting became extremely low, leading to capital outflows from high-frequency brackets.

The market relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com), which may have technical quirks. Additionally, specific rules regarding replies, reposts, and deleted posts can cause discrepancies compared to manual counting on X, posing a moderate rule risk.

Predicting the exact tweet frequency of a specific politician during a random future week is a highly niche and novelty-driven market that ordinary people would rarely consider or track.

April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option plummeted from 40.5c to 7c, because with very little time remaining, the current steady posting rate almost eliminates the possibility of reaching 80 posts. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option surged from 54c to 78.5c, as the stable posting rhythm further confirmed this bracket as the final destination. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option further surged from 55.5c to 77c, while 80-99 plummeted from 34.5c to 15.5c. This is because as time elapsed and uncertainty decreased, the posting rate stably locked into the 60-79 target range. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option surged from 17.5c to 55.5c, as mid-week tracker data showed a slower posting pace, making this bracket the most likely outcome based on the current run rate. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option steadily dropped from 32.5c to 7.5c, because the actual posting pace fell well short of expectations, drastically reducing the mathematical probability of reaching this higher-frequency tier. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option climbed from 1.5c to 25.6c, likely due to recent tracker data indicating a significant slowdown in post frequency. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option plummeted from 60.5c to 18.5c, then rebounded to 42c, indicating massive volatility in expectations for the final count.