The primary risk lies in the reliance on a custom third-party tracker (xtracker), especially regarding its handling of deleted posts (which must survive ~5 mins to be counted) and replies on the main feed. This could lead to discrepancies with native X data.

Forecasting the exact social media posting volume of a head of state over a random week is a highly gamified novelty market that rarely crosses the mind of the general public.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the Yes price for the 40-59 bracket plummeted from 30.5c to 6.5c, and the 80-99 bracket dropped from 35.5c to 15c, while the 60-79 bracket rose from 51c to 65c, as the posting frequency stabilized over time, causing the market to lock its expectations on the 60-79 range. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the Yes price for the 80-99 bracket rebounded from 7.5c to 28c, as the posting frequency increased during this period, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of hitting this range. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes prices for the 140-159 and 100-119 brackets plummeted from 49.5c and 48.65c down to 4c and 8.55c respectively, as actual posting data from the first two days of the tracking period eliminated the possibility of ultra-high frequency. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the Yes price for 40-59 violently fluctuated from 44.5c down to 8c before bouncing to 22c, due to severe market disagreement and liquidity gaps when assessing the initial run rate. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price for the 100-119 bracket plummeted from 39.5c to 10.2c, while the 160-179 bracket surged from 11.75c to 21.95c, due to extreme illiquidity and random large trades causing wild price swings. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the Yes price for 80-99 dropped from 44c to 38c, and later to 31c, as early speculative money exited the position.