While betting on specific city temperatures is somewhat standard in prediction markets, forecasting the exact weather of a distant city on a specific date remains relatively niche and novel for the general public, making it a moderately exotic market.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '21°C' option dropped significantly from 34.5c to 15.5c, while the '19°C' option surged from 25c to a peak of 41.5c before settling at 37c. This occurred because, nearing the resolution date, updated meteorological models ruled out higher extremes and adjusted the expected temperature down to the 19°C-20°C range. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the '22°C or higher' option plummeted from 31.5c to 7.5c, and the '18°C' option dropped from 20.5c to 4c. Concurrently, both '20°C' and '21°C' options saw price increases of over 10c. This was due to the forecast track of Cyclone Vaianu becoming clearer, with mainstream forecasts zeroing in on a high of around 20°C, thereby reducing the probabilities of extreme highs and lower temperatures.

Predicting the maximum temperature of a specific city on a certain day is standard meteorological forecasting, not an outlandish topic. However, in global prediction markets, betting on the temperature in Ankara on a single date is quite niche and attracts limited broad attention.

April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of '9°C' surged from 19.5c to a peak of 39c, as the latest weather models ruled out extreme highs, shifting the median forecast down to the 8-9°C range. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of '14°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 2.7c, because as the target date approaches, extreme high temperatures have been ruled out by weather forecasts. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of '13°C' dropped sharply from 18c to 2.7c, similarly due to updated weather models eliminating the possibility of a significant warm-up. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of '7°C' plummeted from 17c to 4.45c, as models confirmed the minimum high temperature will be well above colder extremes.

The market currently holds high expectations for 9°C (32.5c), 10°C (33c), and even 11°C (17c). However, the latest official Wunderground forecast indicates a high of exactly 47°F (8.3°C) for April 12. This suggests that the probability of 8°C is significantly underpriced (at 11c). The market has not yet fully priced in the latest cooling trend in the forecast.

The title simply says 'tweets', but the rules explicitly exclude standard 'replies', which make up a massive portion of Musk's activity, creating a counter-intuitive pitfall. Additionally, resolution relies heavily on a specific custom tracker (xtracker), introducing technical risks of missed counts or downtime, especially for deleted posts.

This is a highly typical long-tail novelty market. Outside of prediction market degens, nobody naturally contemplates or calculates the exact number of times a specific celebrity posts on social media during a random week. It is purely for entertainment.

April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '240-259' option rose from 14.5c to 23.5c, peaking at 24.5c, as actual post tracking data over time concentrated market expectations in this range. April 7, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of the '220-239' option rose from 9.5c to 16.5c, peaking at 17.5c, as tracking data indicated a slightly lower posting frequency than initially expected, causing a leftward shift in the distribution.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. This is because multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price (26.5c) due to early illiquidity. As market makers and traders stepped in, a clearer consensus formed around the 80-119 range, causing outlier brackets to correct sharply downwards. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets like 100-119 as the tracking period approached.

This is a market on the future valuation of a specific crypto project (Probable). While predicting new token FDV is common in crypto circles, Probable is not a household name like Ethereum or Solana, making this a niche market within a specific vertical.