All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$2.50 Coin
YesNo
SHOWER Act
YesNo
DEFIANCE Act
YesNo
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
YesNo
Data center utility cost protection
YesNo
Trump Airport
YesNo
Housing for the 21st Century Act
YesNo
Credit-card routing competition
YesNo
SELF DRIVE Act
YesNo
AI-chip export licensing
YesNo
Critical-minerals stockpile
YesNo
Film/TV production expensing
YesNo
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
YesNo
Export-control chip security
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 13:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on legislative progress as of mid-March 2026: 1) **$2.50 Coin** (Passed House unanimously Feb 10) and **Housing Act** (Passed House 390-9 Feb 9) have cleared one chamber with overwhelming bipartisan support. Similarly, the **DEFIANCE Act** passed the Senate unanimously. Despite recent price stagnation, these have extremely high probabilities of enactment. 2) **FISA 702** is critical for national security and will likely force reauthorization despite privacy debates. 3) **SHOWER Act** passed the House in Jan and codifies a Trump EO; it faces little resistance in a GOP-controlled Senate. 4) The **Credit-card Act** has received a direct endorsement from Trump ('Everyone should support...'), a decisive tailwind under a GOP administration. 5) **Data center** and **SELF DRIVE** bills face intense industry lobbying or tight committee struggles (SELF DRIVE advanced only 12-11), making passage unlikely.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
NVDA
TSLA
Specific options in this market correlate strongly with major public companies. The passage of the 'SELF DRIVE Act' would be a significant regulatory tailwind for Tesla (TSLA) and Waymo (GOOGL), potentially moving stocks. 'AI-chip export licensing' and chip security bills directly impact revenue projections for semiconductor firms like Nvidia (NVDA). 'Credit-card routing competition' affects Visa (V) and Mastercard. Critical minerals legislation relates to MP Materials (MP). While single bills are usually medium-impact events, they offer clear hedging value for specific sectors.
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of 'Housing for the 21st Century Act' dropped from 67c to 57c, likely due to fading market sentiment as the Senate has not yet immediately acted following the House's passage.
March 11, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of 'Data center utility cost protection' surged from 21c to 48c, driven by the introduction of a bipartisan Senate companion bill by Hawley and Blumenthal and growing congressional scrutiny on utility costs.
March 10, 2026 - March 11, 2026, the price of 'Credit-card routing competition' spiked from 44.5c to 58c, following the bill's reintroduction and a strong endorsement from President Trump on social media.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists on **$2.50 Coin** and **Credit-card Act**. The market prices the former as a coin flip (47%), whereas unanimous House passage implies a >90% probability. For the Credit-card Act, the market (48%) has not fully priced in the decisive impact of Trump's endorsement, which typically signals a green light in a GOP Congress.
