With only 1 day remaining, major meteorological models (Google/IBM/AccuWeather) have converged. IBM ...

Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '20°C' crashed from 20.5c to 3.3c, and '19°C' dropped from 28.5c to 14.5c, as the approaching forecast confirmed a significant cooling trend, ruling out warm spring scenarios. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from 17c to 34.5c, and '16°C' surged from 11c to 27.5c, because capital rapidly rotated into the 16-17°C core range predicted by meteorological models (IBM/Google) as the heatwave options collapsed.

Significant divergence exists. The market currently assigns a ~30% probability (30c price) to '18°C', making it the second favorite. However, all mainstream weather forecasts, including the resolution source's parent company IBM, indicate a high of only around 16°C, with some reaching 17°C. The market pricing for 18°C is significantly lagging behind meteorological data and is severely overpriced.

Based on real-time data at 2 PM Shenzhen time (UTC+8) on March 22, the current temperature is hoveri...

From March 22, 2026, 02:35 UTC to 05:50 UTC, the price of the 26°C option collapsed from 78c to 0.05c, while the 27°C option skyrocketed from 0.05c to 78.6c. This was caused by real-time temperature data (Wunderground ZGSZ) crossing the critical 26.5°C threshold (approx 80°F) as Shenzhen moved into the midday hours (10:30 AM - 1:50 PM local), effectively killing the 26°C outcome and driving volume into 27°C.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream forecasts (Google Weather, AccuWeather) projected a high of 24°C-25°C, with some reaching 26°C. However, the prediction market is pricing 27°C as the overwhelming favorite. This reflects traders reacting to live, localized data from the Wunderground airport station (ZGSZ), which is running hotter than the general urban forecasts.

As of the afternoon of March 21 (Toronto time), the latest authoritative local weather forecasts (Th...

March 20-21, 2026, the price of '3°C' surged from 24.5c to 37.5c, indicating capital rotating out of the extreme '5°C or higher' bucket but incorrectly settling on a moderately warm median, rather than fully correcting to the forecasted cold range. March 20-21, 2026, '5°C or higher' fell from 26c to 16c, continuing its previous crash, reflecting the market's growing realization that extreme warmth (>5°C) is unlikely. March 20-21, 2026, '4°C' remained elevated at 25c after volatility, showing the market is still hedging for 'slightly warmer' outcomes in the absence of conviction regarding the cold front's intensity.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply that 3°C or 4°C are the most probable outcomes (combined ~62%), which may correlate with some global weather models (e.g., Foreca predicting 6°C). However, Canada's most authoritative local sources (The Weather Network and Environment Canada) consistently forecast a high of 1°C to 2°C. Market pricing is severely lagging behind the latest local meteorological updates.

Given the current date of Sunday, March 22, 2026, the next PMQs is scheduled for Wednesday, March 25...

This is a typical 'Political Word Bingo' market. While Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) is a serious, regular political event, bettors are focused on the occurrence of specific vocabulary rather than policy substance. This gamification of political rhetoric qualifies it as a moderately exotic novelty market.

March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 'Reform' steadily rose from 73c to 84c, driven by market expectations that Starmer will be forced to directly address Reform UK's (likely led by Nigel Farage) radical stance on the Iran crisis or domestic order, a political confrontation highly anticipated in PMQs. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, 'Scotland' stabilized in the 41c-45c range after extreme volatility (surging from 13c to 53c), reflecting uncertainty about the SNP's agenda setting and whether they will be granted a key question regarding the war. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, 'Police' corrected from a high of 87.5c to stabilize around 55c, as the market confirmed that while domestic protests exist, the parliamentary debate's center of gravity has partially shifted back to foreign affairs (Iran) and political rivals (Reform).

There is some divergence. While the market correctly prices 'Iran' highly, the pricing for 'Trump' (30c) seems too low. Given that an Iran crisis invariably involves US foreign policy, and Starmer is often questioned about his relationship with the US administration (if Trump is relevant context) or attacked by Tories/Reform for diplomatic weakness, the probability of 'Trump' being mentioned is likely higher than the market's current 30%. Additionally, 'Tory' at only 54c seems conservative for the most common term used to attack the opposition in PMQs.

The resolution source, Wunderground, uses IBM/The Weather Company data. Current forecasts (Google/We...

Mar 21, 2026 03:50-06:00, '30°C or higher' surged from 26.5c to 36c, likely due to a delayed and excessive market reaction to an outlier AccuWeather high-heat forecast (31°C). Mar 20, 2026 06:10-Mar 21 06:00, '25°C' crashed from 26c to 9c, indicating a massive capital flight from the most probable median outcomes to chase extreme heat options. Mar 20, 2026 07:15-10:30, '20°C or below' briefly spiked from 1.5c to 22.6c before crashing back, suggesting early market manipulation or misinterpretation.

High divergence. Polymarket pricing implies '30°C or higher' is the most likely outcome (35.5%), suggesting extreme heat. However, forecasts from the resolution source's parent company (Weather Company/IBM/Google) predict a high of only 26°C. There is a significant 4-5°C deviation between market pricing and the resolution source forecast.