May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the 70-80m option maintained its high level above 90c (peaking at 94.15c), while the 80-90m option stabilized around 8c. This was because the actual weekend box office trend became completely clear, essentially locking the opening weekend gross into the $70 million to $80 million range, leaving only a tiny probability of an unexpected upward revision from Sunday actuals. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the 70-80m option continued to surge from 66.05c to 94.15c, as the actual Friday and Saturday box office trends highly aligned with expectations, completely eliminating the suspense of breaking above $80M or dropping below $70M, causing market capital to aggressively consolidate into this certain range. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the 70-80m option surged from 67.7c to 88.95c, while the 80-90m option fell from 24.3c to around 6c. This was due to preliminary Friday box office estimates cementing the weekend trend, further eliminating the possibility of a weekend surge past $80M, locking the market almost entirely into the 70-80m range. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the 70-80m option spiked further to 78.45c before settling at 65.65c and stabilizing around 72c. Meanwhile, the 80-90m option plunged from 39.5c to 3.5c before rebounding near 24c. The <70m option was highly volatile, briefly surging to 37.4c before dropping near 8c. This was due to actual Thursday preview and early opening day numbers landing squarely in the $70M-$80M range, causing the market to rapidly discard higher expectations. However, later data updates eased fears of dropping below 70m while maintaining a slight hope of breaking 80m. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the 70-80m option spiked from 16.95c to 51.95c, while the 80-90m option plunged from 60.5c to 26.5c, and the <70m option jumped from 1.65c to 13.65c. This was due to Thursday preview or early performance data coming in lower than expected, prompting rapid downward revisions for the opening weekend box office. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the 80-90m option decreased from 64.5c to 48c, while the 70-80m option increased from 17.9c to 28c. This was because the final pre-release tracking data was slightly downgraded, causing some capital to revise expectations downward into the 70-80m bracket. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the 80-90m option rebounded from 24c to 53c, while the 90-100m option pulled back from 53c to 30c. This was because late-stage presale data closer to release made the market less confident in breaking $90M, prompting capital to rebalance the probabilities between 80-90m and 90-100m. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the 90-100m option rebounded sharply from 26c to 53c before settling at 45.5c, while the 80-90m option dropped from 48.5c to 34c, and the 70-80m option spiked to 24.65c before plummeting to 10.5c. This was driven by a late-stage presale surge and increased theater allocations, renewing market confidence in a $90M+ opening. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the >100m option plummeted from 42.5c to 7.5c, while the 80-90m option surged from 22.5c to 43c. As the release date neared, more accurate theater allocation and presale conversion data indicated that breaking the $100M mark would be difficult, prompting a rapid return to a rational $80M-$90M baseline. April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 70-80m option plummeted from 23c to 4.85c, while the >100m option surged from 10.5c to 42.5c, driven by extremely strong early presales.

Forecasting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common novelty topic in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as political elections or sports, it is not extremely bizarre because participants can rely on mature meteorological models.

The market currently favors 18°C (30.5c), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., The Weather Channel and Met Office) project a high of around 16°C to 17°C for May 4. This indicates a divergence between market pricing and the latest meteorological data, likely due to market participants not updating their models with the most recent forecasts.

Predicting the weather in a specific city on a specific day is moderately exotic. While weather data is accessible, it is not a conventional focal point for average financial or event-driven traders.

There is a significant 'denominator uncertainty' risk. While the resolution rule is clear (counting all by-election seats on June 3), currently only 'at least four' are confirmed. The total number of contested seats could increase due to court rulings or resignations before the deadline. Since the options are absolute numbers (e.g., 10+), if the final total of contested seats is lower than an option's threshold, that outcome becomes impossible. This variability heavily impacts the probability of each bracket.

This is a mid-niche market focused on South Korean domestic politics. While standard for observers of Asian geopolitics or the Korean market, it requires specific regional knowledge (e.g., Korean party structures, by-election dynamics) that is typically outside the scope of general global prediction market participants.

April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of the '10+' option plummeted from 83.35c to 62.35c, while the '6-7' option surged from 0.25c to 24.4c. The reason is that as local elections approach, the finalized number of MPs resigning to run may be lower than previous extremely optimistic market expectations, reducing the total available seats and making 6-7 seats a new high-probability range. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the '10+' option surged from 25.2c to 46.8c, while the '8-9' option plummeted from 73.6c to 41.2c. Reason: The market further adjusted its expectations upward regarding the total number of by-election seats caused by MPs resigning for local elections, making 10+ seats the new baseline for the DP. March 10, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of the '10+' option surged from 36.7c to 67.9c, while the '8-9' option plummeted from 49.6c to 24.0c. Reason: As the June local elections approach, confirmations of incumbent MPs resigning to run for local executive positions (Mayor/Governor) have likely increased the expected total number of by-election seats, shifting the probability of the DP winning 10+ seats from 'possible' to the 'baseline scenario'.