Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
Business|$111.5k Vol|
time40 days 3 hrs

Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30? - AI Found +21¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.17 09:54
Top Undervalued
+21¢
Railbird(Yes)
+13.6¢
ForecastEx(Yes)
+4¢
CBOE(Yes)

Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30? AI analysis: • +21¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent market pricing indicates that LedgerX (79.5c) and Railbird (78c) are currently the most likel...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?
Culture|$177.6k Vol|
time5 days 19 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2¢
240-259(No)
+1.9¢
140-159(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices follow a normal distribution centered around the 180-299 range. Elon Musk's ac...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly exclude standard replies (unless on the main feed) and designate a specific third-party tracker for resolution. Traders might easily miscount if they only estimate from his X profile without filtering or checking the tracker.
Exotics
This is a highly entertainment-driven and novelty market. Mainstream individuals rarely attempt to seriously predict the exact number of posts a public figure makes in a specific week.
AI Analysis
Based on historical data, what is the average weekly number of Elon Musk's main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts over the past year to help benchmark the current options?
English Premier League - Most Assists
Soccer|$27.5k Vol|
time4 days 3 hrs

English Premier League - Most Assists

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
Bruno Fernandes(No)
+0.1¢
Granit Xhaka(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Bruno Fernandes' yes price has stabilized at a very high level (>99c). With less than 5 days remaini...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official EPL assist statistics for the 2025-2026 season (as of Feb 2026) and compare the current rankings of options like Granit Xhaka and Bruno Fernandes against their Polymarket odds. Given the low liquidity ($5.8k volume), analyze the bid-ask spread for potential arbitrage opportunities or significant slippage risks.
Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?
football|$28.6k Vol|
time102 days 3 hrs

Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued
+52¢
Denver Broncos(No)
+49.5¢
Cleveland Browns(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Yes prices for all teams are irrationally inflated to 45-51 cents, leading to a total implied pr...
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Divergence
The market prices imply a total probability of over 1500%, which is mathematically impossible and completely contradicts any expert prediction or common sense. Mainstream consensus is that he will only go to one team, most likely a contender like the 49ers, rather than every team having a ~50% chance of signing him.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?', analyze the order book spreads and liquidity depth given the extremely low volume ($352), and update the fair value assessment of 'Los Angeles Chargers' vs. potential landing spots (or 'Other') based on recent team roster news.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Politics|$323.3k Vol|
time166 days 3 hrs

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2.4¢
Shutdown & Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.6¢
Shutdown & Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Since the government shutdown in January 2026 was confirmed, this market has effectively become a di...
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Rule Risk
The market combines two independent conditions with a significant time gap. The major risk is that the 'Shutdown' deadline (Jan 31, 2026) occurs long before the 'House Election' (Nov 2026). If no shutdown occurs by Jan 31, both 'Shutdown & ...' options technically fail early, potentially leaving the market in a zombie state or resolving to 'No' well before the election. Furthermore, given the current simulated date is Feb 2026, the first condition's outcome might already be determined, creating confusion around the timeline.
Exotics
This is a combinatorial market (conditional) binding a macro policy risk ('Government Shutdown') with a political outcome ('Midterm Elections'). While both separate events are standard political topics, combining them creates a specific scenario bet (implying correlation between shutdown and election results), making it slightly more complex and artificial than single events.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
Tech|$327.0k Vol|
time10 days 3 hrs

Gemini 3.2 released on...?

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
May 20(No)
+0.6¢
May 22(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market continues to strongly price in a May 19 release for Gemini 3.2, with the option's price s...
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Rule Risk
The rules strictly define what qualifies as 'Gemini 3.2', explicitly excluding modality-specific models (video, image, etc.) or pure GA promotions. The risk lies in Google potentially releasing a model with an unexpected naming convention, which might seem to qualify common-sensically but triggers a 'No' resolution based on the rule's fine print.
Hedging
GOOGL
The release cadence of Gemini 3.2 is directly tied to Google's competitiveness in the generative AI space. An on-time or early release could have a moderate positive impact on GOOGL stock (roughly a 3-5% move) as it demonstrates technological progress, whereas delays could be negative. The material impact on the broader market (Nasdaq 100) would be negligible.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the Gemini 3.2 market in simple terms: what exactly qualifies as a 'Gemini 3.2' release, and why would closed betas or specialized models like Veo or Lyria be explicitly excluded?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Railbird
YesNo
57¢
43¢
78¢
22¢
+21¢
0¢
ForecastEx
YesNo
4.45¢
95.55¢
18¢
82¢
+13.6¢
0¢

Expand to view all 7 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
This is a highly niche regulatory and prediction market industry question. It is rarely thought about by the general public, as few people track the specific self-certification processes of Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), making it quite novel and obscure.
Movers
From May 10, 2026 to May 14, 2026, the Yes price of Railbird climbed from 63.5c to 78c, showing continued strengthening of market confidence in its compliance schedule. From May 10, 2026 to May 14, 2026, the Yes price of Small Exchange surged from 16c to 28.5c, indicating rapidly warming expectations that it may pursue self-certification. From May 6, 2026 to May 8, 2026, the Yes price of LedgerX surged from 50.5c (May 5) to 75c (May 8, peaking at 79c), indicating that market expectations for it completing self-certification before the deadline have significantly increased, likely driven by favorable news on compliance progress. From May 6, 2026 to May 8, 2026, the Yes price of Railbird steadily rose from 56c (May 5) to 71.5c, showing renewed and strengthened market confidence in its compliance progress. From April 29, 2026 to May 1, 2026, the Yes price of Railbird experienced drastic fluctuations, surging from 34.5c to 66.5c before falling back to 55.5c, indicating that market expectations are swinging sharply amid relevant rumors. From April 27, 2026 to April 30, 2026, the Yes price of LedgerX dropped from 62.5c to 42c, showing a cooling of market confidence in its ability to complete self-certification before the deadline. From April 27, 2026 to April 29, 2026, the Yes price of The Clearing Company anomalously spiked to 42.5c on April 28, before quickly retreating to 8.5c, possibly influenced by brief market rumors or errant trading. From April 22, 2026 to April 24, 2026, the Yes price of the LedgerX option fell from 60c to 46.5c, indicating cooling market expectations regarding its swift approval or progress. From April 20, 2026 to April 22, 2026, the Yes price of the LedgerX option surged from 30c to 60c, likely due to favorable news or progress in compliance steps triggering a positive market reaction. From April 14, 2026 to April 15, 2026, the Yes price of the ForecastEx option surged from 16.5c to 30.5c, indicating rapidly warming market expectations for its self-certification of sports events. From April 14, 2026 to April 16, 2026, the Yes price of the Railbird option rose from 55.5c to 73c, then fell back to 60.5c on the 17th, likely disturbed by news or rumors of relevant compliance progress. From April 14, 2026 to April 16, 2026, the Yes price of the Aristotle option fell from 62c to 45c, possibly encountering compliance resistance or fading market enthusiasm. From April 9, 2026 to April 10, 2026, the Yes price of the ICE option surged from 3.65c to 24.45c, likely due to new information or market rumors hinting at ICE advancing its sports event self-certification process. From April 7, 2026 to April 8, 2026, the Yes price of the LedgerX option rose from 24.5c to 38.5c, indicating a rapid increase in market expectations regarding its compliance actions.

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