Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling data (e.g., PPIC, Berkeley IGS) for the 2026 CA Governor race and compare it with the Polymarket order book depth for top contenders like Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa. Specifically, assess if the market is mispricing borderline contenders like Betty Yee or Steve Hilton due to risks of 'vote splitting' in the Top-Two system.

AI-powered analysis for: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling data (e.g., PPIC, Berkeley IGS) for the 2026 CA Governor race and compare it with the Polymarket order book depth for top contenders like Katie Porter and Antonio Villaraigosa. Specifically, assess if the market is mispricing borderline contenders like Betty Yee or Steve Hilton due to risks of 'vote splitting' in the Top-Two system.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest aggregate polls from FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics regarding the California Gubernatorial Primary. Focus on calculating the 'Top Two' threshold percentage and identify the widest arbitrage discrepancies between polling numbers and Polymarket implied odds, especially for high-profile names with unclear intent like Xavier Becerra or Eric Swalwell.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest aggregate polls from FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics regarding the California Gubernatorial Primary. Focus on calculating the 'Top Two' threshold percentage and identify the widest arbitrage discrepancies between polling numbers and Polymarket implied odds, especially for high-profile names with unclear intent like Xavier Becerra or Eric Swalwell.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Review historical data from California's past 'Jungle Primaries' (e.g., 2018, 2022) to analyze the frequency of unexpected outcomes caused by excessive vote dilution within a single party given a crowded field (30+ options). Use this to determine if there are mispriced 'lottery ticket' opportunities in the long-tail list of candidates (e.g., Nicki Minaj).

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Review historical data from California's past 'Jungle Primaries' (e.g., 2018, 2022) to analyze the frequency of unexpected outcomes caused by excessive vote dilution within a single party given a crowded field (30+ options). Use this to determine if there are mispriced 'lottery ticket' opportunities in the long-tail list of candidates (e.g., Nicki Minaj).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$83.1k Vol|

75 days 5 hrs

Who will advance from the California Governor primary? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Tom Steyer

YesNo

55¢

45¢

30¢

70¢

0¢

+25¢

Matt Mahan

YesNo

23¢

77¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+21¢

Steve Hilton

YesNo

69.5¢

30.5¢

50¢

0¢

+19.5¢

Eric Swalwell

YesNo

68.5¢

31.5¢

55¢

45¢

0¢

+13.5¢

Javen Allen

YesNo

12.6¢

87.4¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+12.6¢

Chad Bianco

YesNo

35.5¢

64.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+10.5¢

Elaine Culotti

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+9.5¢

Sharifah Hardie

YesNo

8.05¢

91.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+7.1¢

Katie Porter

YesNo

24.5¢

75.5¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+4.5¢

Betty Yee

YesNo

7¢

93¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+4¢

Jimmy Parker

YesNo

4.2¢

95.8¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3.2¢

Antonio Villaraigosa

YesNo

8¢

92¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+2¢

Xavier Becerra

YesNo

9.35¢

90.65¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+1.4¢

Raji Rab

YesNo

1.85¢

98.15¢

0¢

Leo Zacky

YesNo

2.25¢

97.75¢

0¢

Zoltan Istvan

YesNo

1.75¢

98.25¢

0¢

David Thelen

YesNo

4.7¢

95.3¢

0¢

Ryan Tillman

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

0¢

David Serpa

YesNo

1.75¢

98.25¢

0¢

Tony Thurmond

YesNo

6.5¢

93.5¢

0¢

Sophia Brink

YesNo

5.3¢

94.7¢

0¢

Ian Calderon

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

Nicki Minaj

YesNo

3.45¢

96.55¢

0¢

Derek Grasty

YesNo

2.7¢

97.3¢

0¢

Butch Ware

YesNo

1.7¢

98.3¢

0¢

Dylan Colbert

YesNo

2.75¢

97.25¢

0¢

Leonard Jackson

YesNo

2.2¢

97.8¢

0¢

Thunder Parley

YesNo

1.4¢

98.6¢

0¢

Carolina Buhler

YesNo

1.75¢

98.25¢

0¢

Ramsey Robinson

YesNo

1.8¢

98.2¢

0¢

Nicholas Thompson

YesNo

1.35¢

98.65¢

0¢

Brandon Jones

YesNo

1.6¢

98.4¢

0¢

Daniel Mercuri

YesNo

3.05¢

96.95¢

0¢

Ché Ahn

YesNo

4.05¢

95.95¢

0¢

Ethan Agarwal

YesNo

6.55¢

93.45¢

0¢

Kyle Langford

YesNo

1.65¢

98.35¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.13 19:16 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market is in a massive bubble, with total implied probability exceeding 260%, far above the 200% mathematical limit. Recent mid-March 2026 polls (Emerson College and UC Berkeley) show a highly fragmented race. Steve Hilton performs strongly in both (13%-19%), suggesting GOP consolidation, justifying a fair value around 50c. Eric Swalwell, despite leading the Emerson poll (17%), sits third in the Berkeley poll (11%), making his 69c market price significantly overvalued relative to fundamentals. Tom Steyer, who placed second in the Berkeley poll (13%) ahead of Swalwell, is significantly undervalued at 26.5c. Most egregiously, Javen Allen (12.5c) and Matt Mahan (15c) represent irrational liquidity bubbles; public records indicate Allen has withdrawn and will not be on the ballot, while Mahan polls at a negligible 3%.

Divergence

Market prices are severely disconnected from mainstream data. 1. **Swalwell vs Steyer**: The latest UC Berkeley poll shows Tom Steyer (13%) actually leading Eric Swalwell (11%), yet the market prices Swalwell at 69c and Steyer at only 26.5c. This massive spread cannot be explained by polling margins and indicates extreme retail bias favoring Swalwell. 2. **Zombie Candidates**: Javen Allen is a confirmed withdrawn candidate, and Matt Mahan polls at only 3%, yet they trade at prices (12c-15c) implying >10% win probabilities, completely defying reality.

Who will advance from the California Governor primary? - AI Odds Analysis

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